Go Back
AccuWeather forecasters say tropical development could occur in early June. Get the forecast. Chevron right

Ashburn, VA

57°F
Location Chevron down
Location News Videos
Use Current Location
Recent

Ashburn

Virginia

57°
No results found.
Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest.
settings
Ashburn, VA Weather
Today WinterCast Local {stormName} Tracker Hourly Daily Radar MinuteCast Monthly Air Quality Health & Activities

Around the Globe

Hurricane Tracker

Severe Weather

Radar & Maps

News

News & Features

Astronomy

Business

Climate

Health

Recreation

Sports

Travel

Video

Podcasts

Winter Center

Top Stories AccuWeather Early AccuWeather Prime Astronomy Climate Travel Health Recreation Business Sports

News / Weather News

AccuWeather’s US tornado forecast shows 4 states face the highest risk this year

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Feb 26, 2019 3:05 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2019 5:00 PM EDT

Copied
Live Coverage For all things weather, 24 hours a day.

Forecasters at AccuWeather predict more U.S. tornadoes than 2018 but a below-average season overall.

AccuWeather predicts there will be 1,075 tornadoes in 2019, which is nine percent more than the 987 tornadoes in 2018. However, the figure is six percent fewer than the U.S. annual average of 1,141.

The 525 tornadoes expected from March through May is almost exactly the normal average of 526 from March through May. In 2018, just 345 occurred from March through May.

AccuWeather projects a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley. The states to be impacted the most will include Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas and Nebraska.

spring 2019 severe weather risk areas

“We believe that the more traditional severe weather region of the central and southern Plains will have a higher potential for tornadoes and severe weather more frequently than they have experienced on average the past three years,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

This forecast was shared with AccuWeather’s subscription clients last week and now is made available to the public free of charge as a public service.

“We believe warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico will lead to increased moisture transport from the Gulf over the region and ultimately a higher frequency of severe weather in these areas,” Pastelok said.

Last year, the U.S. set record lows for the number of fatalities and the number of “violent” tornadoes, those with estimated wind speeds of 166 mph or higher. Tornadoes killed just 10 Americans last year, the lowest number since record-keeping began in 1875. The previous record low total was 12 in 1910. Tornadoes cause an average of 80 U.S. fatalities annually.

The difference between tornado watches and warnings
10 tornado facts you might not know about
Identifying nature’s dangerous whirlwinds: A guide to 5 types of tornadoes
Photos: Deadly EF3 tornado devastates Columbus, Mississippi, downtown area while flooding inundates Tennessee, Kentucky
Tornado deaths graphic

Tornadoes are ranked on the Enhanced Fujita Scale– from EF0 (the weakest) to EF5 – and 2018 was the first year since these records began in 1950 that there was not at least one EF4 or EF5 tornado in the U.S.

The number of tornadoes reported annually has been rising over the past few decades mainly because more are reported as the U.S. population has risen and more people have access to mobile devices and cameras. Many tornadoes of the past were not seen or recorded; this change may amount to an increase of reported tornadoes of up to 20 percent over the last 40 years and 10 percent over the past 20 years.

However, tornado-related fatalities have been trending downward despite more people living in tornado-prone areas. The reasons for this trend include advances in weather science and technology, the increasing accuracy of warnings and the effectiveness of warning methods such as through mobile apps, and better cooperation between government weather services and the American weather industry that includes AccuWeather.

The AccuWeather Ready site includes educational weather news and videos, facts about the potential health impacts of different weather events, safety tips and resources, personalized weather preparedness plans, detailed checklists, and more. Users also can receive severe weather push notifications in the AccuWeather app on iOS and Android.

Report a Typo

Weather News

Weather News

Shanghai records its highest May temperature in more than 100 years

May 29, 2023
Weather News

Venice authorities investigate after canal turns fluorescent green

May 29, 2023
video

Ways you can get outside to honor the fallen on Memorial Day

May 29, 2023
Show more Show less Chevron down

Topics

Top Stories

AccuWeather Early

AccuWeather Prime

Astronomy

Climate

Travel

Health

Recreation

Business

Sports

Top Stories

Severe Weather

Severe thunderstorms to end May with a bang

1 hour ago

Severe Weather

Rough waters cause scare aboard Carnival Cruise

13 hours ago

Weather News

4 great white sharks detected in waters off NY and NJ

16 hours ago

Hurricane

Deadly Typhoon Mawar churns closer to Philippines

1 hour ago

Weather Forecasts

Temperatures to surge in Midwest, Northeast

1 hour ago

More Stories

Featured Topic

Your Local Asthma Forecast

Featured Stories

Weather News

Chasing the light: NYC’s Manhattanhenge returns this week

1 hour ago

Weather News

Four dead after tourist boat capsizes in Italy’s Lake Maggiore

16 hours ago

Time-lapse video shows tornado from beginning to end in Texas

1 day ago 0:26
AccuWeather Weather News AccuWeather’s US tornado forecast shows 4 states face the highest risk this year
Company
Proven Superior Accuracy About AccuWeather Digital Advertising Careers Press Contact Us
Products & Services
For Business For Partners For Advertising AccuWeather APIs AccuWeather Connect Podcast RealFeel® and RealFeel Shade™
Apps & Downloads
iPhone App Android App See all Apps & Downloads
Subscription Services
AccuWeather Premium AccuWeather Professional
More
AccuWeather Ready Business Health Hurricane Leisure and Recreation Severe Weather Space and Astronomy Sports Travel Weather News Winter Center
Company
Proven Superior Accuracy About AccuWeather Digital Advertising Careers Press Contact Us
Products & Services
For Business For Partners For Advertising AccuWeather APIs AccuWeather Connect Podcast RealFeel® and RealFeel Shade™
Apps & Downloads
iPhone App Android App See all Apps & Downloads
Subscription Services
AccuWeather Premium AccuWeather Professional
More
AccuWeather Ready Business Health Hurricane Leisure and Recreation Severe Weather Space and Astronomy Sports Travel Weather News Winter Center
© 2023 AccuWeather, Inc. "AccuWeather" and sun design are registered trademarks of AccuWeather, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Do Not Sell My Data checkmark Confirmed Not Selling Your Data

We have updated our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy.

I Understand

Get AccuWeather alerts as they happen with our browser notifications.

Notifications Enabled

Thanks! We’ll keep you informed.

FEEDBACK