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Multi-faceted storm to pack a punch in Midwest, eastern US early this week

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Nov 30, 2020 9:13 PM EDT

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A strengthening storm that rolled up fro the Southern states with heavy rain on Sunday will continue to bring areas of heavy rain, gusty winds and locally severe thunderstorms to the mid-Atlantic and New England, while a change from rain to snow is forecast to progress across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through Monday night.

The storm is projected to pack enough of a punch to cause major disruptions to travel, widespread power outages and even property damage. It will create wintry scenes in the Midwest, blanketing areas with heavy snow, but thunderstorms and temperatures in the East for a time might be more reminiscent of the springtime.

This image, captured on Monday midday, Nov. 30, 2020, shows a large mass of clouds affecting the eastern third of the nation associated with a significant storm system. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)

Even though the weekend ended on a quiet note in the Midwest and the Northeast, the storm was brewing all weekend along the Gulf coast with areas of drenching rain.

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During Sunday night, rain reached parts of the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic coast. A few thunderstorms packing damaging winds and heavy rain pushed from northern Florida to eastern Virginia.

As colder air began to be drawn into the storm on its western flank, rain became mixed with and changed to snow in portions of Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky late Sunday night. As of Monday afternoon, snow was falling from the northern tier of Alabama through middle Tennessee, central Kentucky, eastern Indiana, western and central Ohio and southeastern Michigan.

This changeover to snow is forecast to continue to expand eastward into parts of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, West Virginia, the Virginia Panhandle, eastern Ohio and part of western Pennsylvania during Monday night.

The storm will continue to take a quick track up the spine of the Appalachians with warm air to its east and colder air to its west. The strengthening storm will cause winds to roar along the Eastern Seaboard, where peak gusts have the potential to reach 80 mph, which is hurricane force.

The greatest chance of an 80-mph wind gust is in southeastern Massachusetts, or with any severe thunderstorm that erupts. Winds this strong can break tree limbs, knock over poorly rooted trees, send trash cans and other loose objects sailing through neighborhoods and lead to property damage. The strong winds pushing on ocean and bay waters could lead to coastal fooding from North Carolina to Maine.

The risk of severe thunderstorms with intense downpours, damaging winds and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes will extend northward from eastern North Carolina to Massachusetts into Monday evening. Even though the storm system failed to produce tornadoes on Sunday and Sunday night, conditions may not follow suit along the Atlantic coast. Since the storm itself is strengthening, the risk of high winds, severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes will increase into Monday evening.

During late Monday night, the change to snow will continue to progress northward through the balance of western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and western New York state.

The rate of snow through Monday night is likely to be heavy enough to not only pile up on non-paved surfaces and weigh down tree limbs to the point where they can break and cause power outages, but also cause roads to become slippery and snowcovered.

Several inches of snow are expected to pile up over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians, with up to a few inches expected over eastern Tennessee, central and eastern Kentucky, eastern Indiana, southern Ohio and the western part of West Virginia.

Forecasters anticipate that snow amounts will trend upward across northeastern Ohio, eastern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and southeastern Michigan. Snow on the order of 6-12 inches is anticipated from northern Ohio to northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York state and southwestern Ontario into Tuesday morning from the main part of the storm. But, additional snow will continue to pile up in the storm's aftermath from Tuesday through Wednesday due to lake-effect.

Related:

Tornado safety: What to do if you encounter a tornado while driving
How to survive a power outage in winter
Winterlike cold blast set to cause South to shiver
Feet of lake-effect snow to bury some areas downwind of the Great Lakes

Enough snow to shovel and plow is in store for Cleveland, Akron, Dayton, Columbus and Toledo, Ohio; Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, Michigan; Erie, Pennsylvania, and Toronto and London, Ontario. Enough snow will fall on Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Knoxville, Tennessee, to make some roads slippery.

Snowfall may be uneven from one area to the next, not only from city to countryside locations, but also can vary from areas that receive sunlight on a sunny day versus areas that are shaded most of the time. Bridges and overpasses on beltways surrounding urban areas may pick up more snow than locations in the center of a city in this case due to temperatures near or just above freezing during the storm.

Gusts frequenting 30-40 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow, threatening lakeshore flooding in some communities along the Great Lakes. The combination of the weight of snow and increasing wind could cause some trees to topple and block roads in parts of Ohio, southeastern Michigan, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and southern Ontario.

From Tuesday to early Wednesday, a dry sweep of air will mark the end of rain along the Atlantic coast.

As colder air continues to be drawn into the storm and passes over the open waters of the Great Lakes, steady snow will transition to flurries and snow squalls from Ohio and West Virginia to western Maryland, western and northern Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and western, central and northern New York state.

The snow squalls in the wake of the storm could become intense enough to suddenly drop the visibility along parts of I-70, the Pennsylvania Turnpike, I-80 and I-90 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Lake-effect snow is forecast to continue to pile up after the storm shifts northward into Canada. Where bands of lake-effect snow persist and occur on top of snow from the first part of the storm, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 36 inches (90 centimeters) is anticipated in parts of northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York state and southern Ontario.

Otherwise, the period from Tuesday to Wednesday will be quite blustery and appropriate for the first couple of days of December and the unofficial start to the winter season in the Midwest and Northeast. But, in the Southern states, the weather may be more typical of early January with temperatures of 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below average for early December.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios

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