Showers, storms to continue in Southeast, but will hammer two main areas
Tropical moisture flowing into the southeastern United States will continue into this weekend, but some areas will be hit harder than others in terms of downpours and the risk of flash flooding.
Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread across the southeastern U.S. from July 23-25.
While sunshine and typical late-July heat will continue to interrupt a pattern strewn with showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast and part of the south-central United States through this weekend, the areas from coastal Texas to Louisiana and the Carolinas will likely be the wettest and most prone to flash flooding, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The main funnel of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be directed toward southeastern Texas and part of Louisiana through into the weekend and perhaps into next week as well, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham explained.
"From Tuesday to Saturday, this zone from the Texas coast to western Louisiana will receive a general 1-4 inches of rain with pockets of 4-8 inches," Buckingham said, "There is an AccuWeather Local StormMax™of 15 inches for the event."
Brownsville, Texas, has already received close to 5 inches of rain in the pattern through early Friday morning. Lake Charles, Louisiana, has received 6.17 inches of rain during the same time frame.
Due to earlier rains this summer, including from Beryl, much of this area is not in drought, and the rain may be prone to running off quickly, leading to flash flooding.
"Some drains may still be blocked with debris left behind in the wake of Beryl, especially in the Houston area," Buckingham said.
Some of that rain will fall within a couple of hours and can overwhelm storm drains, leading to flash street and highway flooding in cities such as Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Houston and Port Arthur, Texas, as well as in Lake Charles and Alexandria, Louisiana.
Enough rain will fall next week to bring surges of water to area rivers just inland of the coast. The rivers will rise faster than usual, as some of the landscape was still moist in the wake of Beryl earlier in the month. The new rain will run off quickly and enter area streams, bayous, and rivers rather than be absorbed by the ground.
Driving through flooded roads can be dangerous. The water may still be rising rapidly, it could be fast-flowing and sweep your vehicle away, it may be deeper than it appears, or the road might have been washed away.
At least a few downpours will reach farther inland over Texas to a portion of the Interstate 35 corridor, which may bring more benefits than problems.
"The forecast brings some good news for residents, agricultural interests and watershed management of drought-stricken central Texas, as the weather pattern will be conducive for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms that can provide temporary relief from the heat and can help prevent areas of drought from getting any worse," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
The metro areas of San Antonio and Austin, as well as Laredo, Texas, should receive at least some downpours in the pattern.
Farther to the north and east, a somewhat more focused corridor of downpours will extend across northern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, southeastern Arkansas and southern Tennessee, but a more enhanced zone will develop over the Carolinas through the end of the week.
Much of the central and eastern portions of the Carolinas are forecast to receive 1-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts into Friday. Where downpours persist for more than a few minutes, the risk of street flooding and flash flooding of small streams will increase. Some of the cities at risk for flash flooding include Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, as well as Columbia and Charleston, South Carolina.
Outside these two main downpour zones, there will be a mosaic of shower and thunderstorm activity each day into the weekend. Since vast areas of abnormally dry to drought conditions are ongoing in the Southeast, any rainfall will benefit groundwater, small streams and reservoirs.
Any downpour in the Southeast will disrupt outdoor plans and bring the risk of highly localized flash flooding. As thunderstorms pulse in the afternoon heat, highly localized damaging wind gusts can also occur. Where the pulsing storms occur near an airport, such as Atlanta, Houston, or Charlotte, it can bring a new surge of delays and possible flight cancellations at a time when airlines are still recovering from the recent computer software issue.
Any thunderstorm, no matter how weak it may seem, always brings the risk of a lightning strike without notice. For this reason, experts urge people to get off the beach, golf course or sports practice field and move indoors at the first rumble of thunder.
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