Rainfall to remain limited, fire risk to continue in Northeast as temperatures surge again
While some opportunities for rain will arise this week in the Northeast, rising temperatures and increasing winds will boost the wildfire threat to new levels.
New Jersey is facing Stage 3 burn bans due to extremely dry conditions. We explain what that means and provide essential tips to help prevent wildfires during this critical time.
As the record stretch of dry weather continues for much of the Northeast, building warmth and increasing winds are boosting the brush fire danger this week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. While there will be some opportunities for rainfall, any widespread soaking rain may be many days away.
Following a glancing burst of cold air on Sunday night that brought a blanket of snow to the Adirondack, Green and White mountains of the interior Northeast, warmth will build across the region into Thursday.
Warmth, and winds accelerate wildfire risk
High temperatures will be in the 70s and even near 80 through Thursday (Halloween), which is 15-25 degrees above the historical average for most locations and will challenge daily records in some cases. Compare that to the start of the week when highs were in the 40s, 50s and low 60s.
Along with the building warmth will be a gusty southwesterly breeze into Thursday.
The dry landscape, warmth, sunshine and increasing winds will further boost the existing wildfire risk in the region.
Experts urge extreme caution when using outdoor power equipment and open flames where sparks or embers could ignite a blaze--this includes the traditional autumn burning of leaves in some communities.
The risk of wildfires may continue into Friday as breezy winds linger across the Northeast behind the cold front. With little rain expected from this front, very little relief from drought conditions is expected.
Even tossing a burning cigarette on the ground could spark a roadside brush fire amid the extremely dry conditions.
Outdoor burning of trash or brush should be postponed until wetter conditions arrive.
Much of the region has been experiencing increasing and widening drought since the end of the summer.
Portions of the mid-Atlantic have not received enough rain to measure since late September or early October, and some locations are experiencing their driest 60-day-plus period ever.
Opportunities for rain to arise, but drought likely to outlast
A few showers occurred across the Northeast on Tuesday. One such shower brought 0.01 of an inch of rain to New York City, officially ending the city's dry streak. Prior to Tuesday, the last time New York City received measurable rainfall was Sept. 30. Many locations are likely to bag their driest October on record this month.
There will be another chance for measurable rain this week, including in some of the driest locations in the past few months. However, opportunities do not necessarily mean it will rain everywhere, and even where it does manage to rain, it likely will not end the drought or cancel the wildfire risk.
The second chance for more general shower activity will come with the approach of a cold front from later on Halloween over the interior to Friday near the coast.
"That cold front could bring a brief period of rain to areas as far south as West Virginia, Maryland and Virginia," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
It was a cold front that triggered spotty showers and thunderstorms late last week. However, that activity brought only enough rain to dampen the ground in spots in Philadelphia and New York City.
Philadelphia recorded 31 straight days without measurable precipitation on Wednesday. This broke the old record of 29 days without 0.01 of an inch of rain or more, from Oct. 11 to Nov. 8 in 1874.
Temperatures will dip in the wake of the cold front once again but not to levels that are too far from the historical average. After the brief dip late in the week, a new warming trend will commence later in the weekend and continue into the first week of November, which may renew and amplify drought and wildfire concerns.
AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Alex Duffus affirmed that a pattern change will bring frequent rains to portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley during November, including on Election Day, but that may not expand to the East.
"That pattern change may lead to a few more opportunities for some rain in the East but perhaps not the type of rainfall that would necessarily break the building drought as an area of high pressure is likely to hold on along the Atlantic coast, especially in the southeastern United States," Duffus explained.
Lower temperatures or more sea-saw effects of warm and cool may occur with only brief opportunities for rainfall.
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