Rain arrives but long term dryness, fire weather persist in Northeast
Some rain will dampen the Northeast into Sunday night amid a dry streak that has triggered wildfires and caused streams and reservoirs to drop to low levels.
A 2-alarm brush fire broke out in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park on the evening of Nov. 8, quickly spreading before firefighters extinguished the blaze.
Prior to this weekend, the last thorough soaking in most of the Northeast was in late September. The dry conditions have not only increased the risk of wildfires but also caused streams and reservoirs to drop to low levels. Many bogs and ponds in New Jersey have dried up.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the rain will only have limited and short-term benefits.
No doubt, the weather pattern, which has featured plenty of unusually warm days, has been great for outdoor plans, construction projects and travel in general. However, the building dryness in October has escalated to a serious drought.
The states of New Jersey and Delaware both officially had their driest October's on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Last month was also the second driest October on record for the lower 48 states combined—second only to 1952.
The combination of dry brush, fallen leaves, warm days and windy episodes has created ideal brush fire weather conditions. Dozens of wildfires have broken out over the past week, and some have affected major population centers, if not directly from fire but from a significant amount of smoke.
The smoke that invaded the New York City area on Saturday dispersed a bit on Sunday. However, the smoky conditions thickened around Philadelphia due to fires in southern New Jersey.
In some cases in the Northeast, the current 30- to 60-day stretch has never been drier since records have been kept. At Trenton, New Jersey, the all-time record of consecutive days with no measurable rain has been broken. The old record was 38 days from April to May in 1903. Records date back to the conclusion of the Civil War in 1865.
Since late September, New York City has received only 0.01 of an inch of rain while only a few drops have fallen on Philadelphia. In both examples, evaporation and the lack of rain have dried the soil and brush and caused stream and river levels to plummet.
Firefighters are battling a massive increase in wildfires across New Jersey, with fires even spreading underground in some cases.
According to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, reservoir levels in much of the state had dipped to around 60% of capacity as of Nov. 7. Levels continued to drop daily.
During a typical year, when rainfall is close to the historical average, reservoir levels tend to reach full capacity in the late spring then drop gradually during the summer to the early autumn as demand draws upon the water. From winter to spring, water levels tend to rise as rainfall and runoff exceed demand. However, this autumn, reservoirs have dropped to levels that are much lower than average and were plummeting quickly due to the lack of rain.
Some reservoirs have taken on a look similar to the California drought from a few years ago.
The only condition preventing a very serious problem is the low demand for water this time of the year, relative to the high summertime demands from agricultural and landscape interests.
AccuWeather meteorologists have cited some opportunities for rainfall in the past week or so, but as predicted, these have been light and sporadic. The Appalachians screened out much of the rain that approached from the Midwest in recent weeks. There has been no strong influx of Atlantic moisture near the coast to keep the rain thriving as it moved in.
Rain likely to at least snap the long dry stretch
Rain has pushed from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians as of Sunday afternoon and some of it reached the Atlantic coast into Monday morning.
New York City picked up 0.17 inches of rain Sunday night. It is the most thorough soaking they have received since 0.78 inches fell on September 29.
"The rain will be a record-breaker in the sense that it will likely snap the record number of days without measurable rain in parts of the Northeast," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said.
A non-tropical storm will have already tapped into a significant amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture and should have time to grab a bit from the Atlantic before completely moving away.
"Many areas should experience rain into Sunday night in the Northeast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "It looks like a 0.10 of an inch to as much as 0.50 of an inch in many areas. This sort of rain is certainly not enough to really help out with the ongoing drought conditions, but it would be enough to soak the top layer of the soil and brush, which will reduce the chance for blowing dust behind the front and wildfire ignition and spread on Monday as westerly winds pick up."
The light rainfall heading for the region can cause problems on the area's roads, so drivers are urged to use caution.
"Since it has been so dry recently, the initial rainfall in many areas may contribute to some slick spots on roadways as the water mixes with some oil left about on the top surface of the asphalt and concrete," Anderson said.
Monday, there can still be a few lingering showers in Upstate New York and New England, but much of the region will remain dry as the rain moves offshore.
Along with the upcoming rain, temperatures will be on the slide and will end up close to the historical average for the second week of November this weekend. Temperatures are projected to swing to back above the historical average Monday, but not to the record levels of recent days.
Another cooldown will follow on Tuesday.
High temperatures in the Northeast midweek will largely be in the 40s and 50s Fahrenheit with the higher elevations in the mountains of New York and Vermont anticipated to only reach the mid- to upper 30s.
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