Persistent storm track to bring rounds of rain to southern US into mid-January
The active pattern will be both good and bad news for the region, helping to ease drought concerns for some while also raising the risk of flooding and travel delays.
Multiple episodes of rain will drench the Southeast and the southern Plains into next week, including the risk of locally severe thunderstorms.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that a storm poised to sweep across the South into late week will be the start of an active pattern that brings waves of rain and thunderstorms to the region every few days through the first half of January.
The long-range forecasting team at AccuWeather, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, has been discussing for weeks how storms would likely take a more southern track across the nation during the early part of 2024.
There is a high potential for a persistent southern storm track into week three of January, resulting in more rain across southern Texas, along the Gulf coast and into the Southeast, according to Pastelok.
The wet start to the new year will be a carryover from December 2023 for some coastal areas, where precipitation amounts were more than double the historical average over the course of the month.
Local resident Wayne Cox and friend Irma Parrilla, visiting from Orlando, brave gusty winds and drizzling rain to visit Matheson Hammock Park in Coral Gables, Fla., Friday, Dec. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
1st soaking storm to advance along the Gulf Coast by midweek
AccuWeather forecasters say that the first sizable storm in the rain train that caused wet weather to blossom in central Texas will continue to expand along the Gulf coast through late Wednesday night.
"A swath of steady rain unfolded across Texas and Louisiana Tuesday night, before spreading eastward across the I-10 corridor through Wednesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis. This storm will be soaking places like New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Biloxi, Mississippi.
While widespread rainfall amounts of around 0.50" are forecast from central Texas to the Florida Atlantic Coast, the zone from Houston to Panama City, Florida may see rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches through late Wednesday night.
People heading back to work and school following the holidays will want to make sure that they have an umbrella before heading out the door. The steadiest rain is expected to impact motorists along the Interstate-10 corridor, but some rain can reach as far north as I-20.
Weather-related airline delays could mount in Dallas, Houston, New Orleans and Orlando into early Thursday.
Additional storms will pack more rain, perhaps severe weather
Locations across the South should have a 24- to 48-hour spell of dry weather between the midweek storm and the next rain-maker poised to arrive by the first weekend of the new year.
"The potential exists for another storm to pass through the same affected areas of the South Central and Southeastern states Friday into the weekend," said Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
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AccuWeather's long-range team was eyeing yet another storm to follow in the Jan. 8-10 timeframe.
Each passing storm has the potential to produce 1-2 inches of rain across a wide swath, with locally higher amounts possible.
There is the potential for one or more of these storms to produce locally severe thunderstorms across the South, in addition to heavy rainfall.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer noted that there will be a lot of stale, cool air out ahead of each storm system which can have a negating effect on the severe thunderstorm risk. Typically, an abundance of warm, moist air is one of the ingredients needed for an outbreak of damaging thunderstorms.
If any of this air can get scoured out as the storm train crosses the South, there can be a nonzero risk of severe weather, according to Bauer.
Cumulatively, the rounds of rain should have a positive effect on the drought-stricken areas of the South. The lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys are where some of the worst conditions are ongoing with areas of extreme to exceptional drought.
AccuWeather's expert team will be closely monitoring whether any of these storms will attempt to make a run into chillier air to the north and east, potentially resulting in wintry weather for part of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast. One such storm is eyeing the Northeast with snow and ice for the first weekend of the new year.
For coastal areas, 2024 to start off how 2023 closed out
While interior areas of the Southeast are contending with drought, a surplus of rainfall was had during the month of December for many locations along the Gulf and Southeast coasts.
Tallahassee, Florida, and Biloxi, Mississippi, for example, received more than 10 inches of rain for the month of December, more than double the historical average.
The upcoming stormy pattern can create localized flooding problems throughout the South, with this being especially true where it was unusually soggy to end 2023.
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