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Drought-busting rain and snow in store for Southwest

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jan 20, 2021 9:01 PM EDT

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Some water sports enthusiasts got more than they bargained for on “Super Swell Saturday” when a wave over 35 feet high crashed into them, throwing jet skiers from their watercraft.

Forecasters say the storm that brought low-elevation rain and high-elevation snow to the Southwest to begin the week is just the first in a series of systems that will continue to deliver much-needed precipitation over the next several days.

Rainfall amounts with an initial batch of precipitation were generally a quarter of an inch or less on Tuesday. However, some areas in the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado received over a foot of snow. The next round of rain is likely to be heavier.

"A slow-moving storm off the coast of northwestern Mexico will work to inject a push of moisture across portions of the Southwest through Thursday," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert. "This push of moisture will allow rounds of rain to develop across the parched region."

Despite the drought, some of the rain may be heavy enough to cause flooding. In addition, when the ground is extremely dry, much of the moisture tends to run off, instead of being absorbed. Therefore, some flood watches are already in effect in portions of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona. Overall, flooding will be the exception rather than the rule, and the rain will largely be beneficial.

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"While this storm will not eliminate drought conditions for the area, any drop of rain will help to ease some of the burden," stated Gilbert.

Over the course of the last several months, some of the precipitation deficits have become quite large. Although this area of the country is not particularly wet to begin with, it has been even drier than normal.

"From Oct. 1, 2020 to Jan. 19, 2021, Tucson, Arizona had received an abysmal 34 percent of the average rainfall for the time period," said Gilbert. "The city continues to experience exceptional drought according to the United States Drought Monitor and much of the Four Corners states -- Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah -- are in the midst of either extreme or exceptional drought."

Since the start of the year, Tucson had not seen a drop of rain. Other areas received the first rain of 2021 on Tuesday, but amounts were paltry. Palm Springs, California had a trace of rain, with Phoenix having 0.01 of an inch.

Much of the rain on Wednesday was in northern Mexico, but is forecast to expand northward during Wednesday night. By Thursday, rain may be locally heavy in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.

The storm system is likely to move to the east of the region by Thursday night and Friday, but that may not be the end of the precipitation for a while.

"Late this week, more rain and mountain snow is likely as a new storm is forecast to drop southward along the Pacific coast and the turn inland," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

With this system initially starting farther north, many more areas are likely to have rain and snow as compared to the midweek storm.

"This same pattern of storms dipping along the West Coast may persist until nearly the end of the month, which can bring more opportunities for needed moisture in the Southwest and other parts of the western U.S.," Sosnowski added.

This is normally the time of year when storms with ample moisture can make it into the Southwest, and the pattern is finally looking like it will resemble more typical weather.

Related:

‘Extraordinary wind gusts’ spark fires, power outages across California
Another world heat record for 2020? Looks like it
Week to end with rounds of rain from Texas to Carolinas

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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