Drenching downpours to soak areas already hit hard by flooding
A broad area of the United States from the Midwest to New England is expected to get doused by rounds of showers of thunderstorms through the end of the week, AccuWeather forecasters say. This rainfall is good news for drought-plagued areas of the Northeast, but it will be unwelcome in devastated parts of eastern Kentucky still reeling from a historic deluge last week.
Portions of central and southern Illinois and southern Indiana were already being targeted by heavy rainfall that was leading to flooding concerns on Tuesday. From 1-5 inches of rain fell on the region from Monday night into Tuesday midday, which prompted flash flood warnings in parts of Illinois. Most of these downpours fell apart prior to reaching central and eastern Kentucky.
This radar image shows thunderstorms over portions of Illinois to Indiana and Kentucky on Tuesday morning, Aug. 2, 2022.
Batches of thunderstorms will continue to erupt and drift across the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast states through Thursday with isolated heavy rainfall, but it is a front that will stall and lead to more widespread downpours and heightened flood risk.
Storms in Michigan caused numerous power outages Wednesday, with nearly 160,000 utility customers without service as of 7:40 p.m. CDT, per PowerOutageUS. Most of the outages were concentrated in southern Michigan, including more than 12,000 customers in Jackson County. Power was only slowly restored, with over 108,000 still in the dark as of 4 a.m. CDT Thursday. Jackson County still led the way with nearly 10,000 without power.
Further south in Illinois, flooding potential grew worrisome late Wednesday afternoon when the Rock River near Byron swelled to over 23 feet -- about 10 feet above the river's flood stage.
Late on Wednesday evening, St. Louis received 2.89 inches of rain, including 2.32 in one hour and an incredible 1.46 inches of that fell in just 18 minutes. This prompted the issuance of a flash flood warning. Thankfully, it did not rise to the level of a flash flood emergency. Last Monday, over 9 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour span, bringing widespread flooding to the city and a flash flood emergency was in effect.
Last week, a similar setup -- a stalled front -- allowed thunderstorms to fire and repeat over the same areas in Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia and led to catastrophic and deadly flooding. Some cities and towns were slammed with 6-12 inches of rain over a span of 24-48 hours.
Even though the situation on Friday and Saturday appears to be less volatile compared to last week, portions of the Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians cannot withstand much rainfall without the likelihood of flash flooding.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to ramp up along the frontal zone as it pushes across the Great Lakes and approaches the Ohio Valley and central and northern Appalachians on Thursday.
The setup for Friday and Saturday will allow the front to stall from the mid-Mississippi Valley to northern New England, forecasters say.
A general 1-2 inches of rain is likely to fall from parts of eastern Missouri to northwestern Maine through Saturday. However, heavier rainfall amounts ranging from 2-4 inches are likely in portions of the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys to the central and northern Appalachians.
In locations where heavy rain falls in a few hours or less, such as in urban locations or where the ground is saturated, the flash flood risk will be considerably higher than in places where the rain is more spread out over the course of a couple of days.
Swift rises on small streams are likely in portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and northwestern Virginia. Those living along small streams should be prepared to move to higher ground, while motorists may want to consider an alternate route away from flood-prone roads.
How far the front drifts along through the Northeast will determine which areas received the greatest amount of rain.
"Friday may be the wettest day from the northern parts of the Ohio Valley to western and northern portions of Pennsylvania and New York state," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert said.
"Should the front get hung up sooner, then the Appalachians are most likely to receive the bulk of the rainfall on both Friday and Saturday, and only sparse rainfall may occur along the Interstate 95 corridor," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg added.
"Alternatively, if the front drifts farther along before grinding to a halt, then the Appalachians would get drenched on Friday, while areas from Boston to New York City, Philadelphia and Boston could reap the bulk of the downpours on Saturday," Lundberg explained.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting that the heaviest rains in the Northeast will tend to develop over the northern parts of Maryland and Virginia through much of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, central and southeastern New York and southwestern New England from Friday to Saturday.
Some downpours could reach beyond this zone and extend farther north across New York, northeastward across New England and farther southeast across Virginia, Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey.
Many locations from Pennsylvania to Maine, where lawns are brown, crops are stressed and small streams have been reduced to a trickle, would welcome a soaking rainfall or a few downpours over a couple of days.
As of Tuesday, Aug. 2, soil moisture conditions ranged from wet in parts of southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia to bone dry in parts of New England, according to the United States Drought Monitor. In portions of eastern Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, a severe drought was in progress. Since July 1, Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, have received less than 20% of their normal rainfall of about 3 inches.
Downpours are likely to become more isolated in nature or dissipate entirely on Sunday in the Northeast and over much of the Ohio Valley. Farther south, the risk of downpours and localized flash flooding may continue over the mountains in West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee and North Carolina.
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