Downpours to offer some relief to drought-plagued southern Plains
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr 29, 2022 1:24 PM EDT
|
Updated May 1, 2022 4:05 AM EDT
In a rare move for Southern California, the region's biggest water supplier asked millions in the Los Angeles area to limit outdoor watering to one day a week amidst historic drought conditions.
AccuWeather meteorologists say parts of the southern Plains suffering from worsening drought conditions will get a little relief this weekend thanks to a temporary break in the weather pattern. But with the beneficial rainfall, however, will come some potentially damaging storms.
The agriculture industry in western Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas has been hit hard by drought over the last year. Along with livestock grazing lands, a large portion of the southern High Plains is home to significant wheat and cotton production for the U.S.
Much more rain is needed than what has fallen this past winter and so far this spring. Drought conditions range from severe to exceptional in much of the region, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Since Jan. 1, rainfall has ranged from 10-50% of average over much of the southern High Plains.
"Amarillo, Texas, has observed only 0.01 of an inch of rain this April, compared to an average near 1.50 inches, so the rainfall is desperately needed," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, adding that, "similarly in Lubbock, Texas, only a few drops of rain have been observed this month, compared to a normal of 1.33 inches." Both of these cities are in the zone where thunderstorms may fire late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
"A large percentage of the nation’s cotton crop is grown in Texas, with a high density of that in the northwestern part of the Lone Star State, and Sunday’s setup may focus on part of the densest cotton cropland," Buckingham said.
The winter wheat crop will be harvested in a south-to-north fashion across the southern and central Plains from later on in May through July. "The anticipated rain, especially across western Kansas, could be very beneficial next week," Buckingham said.
The potential for localized soaking downpours will come in two rounds or from two storm systems that are expected to dip farther south than most storms have done in many weeks.
The first storm will race southeastward across the western U.S. during the first part of this weekend.
By Sunday, this storm will be centered near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Since a front will have stalled over the southern Plains ahead of the storm, the combination of the two weather systems and lingering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be enough to allow showers and thunderstorms to erupt from portions of western and central Texas to western Oklahoma and southern Kansas Sunday night, Buckingham said.
"It is possible that the first storms may fire up even farther to the west into portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado during Sunday afternoon," Buckingham stated.
Some of the storms can pack a punch in terms of severe weather as well with the most robust storms likely to produce high wind gusts, large hail and even a tornado. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 100 mph will be possible on Sunday.
The severe weather and flash flood threat will expand eastward on Monday and Monday night from northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas to portions of Missouri and Arkansas.
As the storm system travels toward the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, a front will trail to the southwest and stall over portions of the southern Plains. But that won’t be the end of the storminess. Long-range forecasts indicate that another storm system will roll in from the Pacific Ocean and travel across the interior West next week.
The extent and amount of rainfall for the southern High Plains from Tuesday to Wednesday is questionable at this point, AccuWeather meteorologists say. But, the combination of the storm, stalled front and extensive lingering moisture is likely to create another opportunity for drenching showers and severe thunderstorms in areas from western and central Texas to western parts of Oklahoma and Kansas and eastern areas of Colorado and New Mexico.
The threat of severe weather may escalate by the middle of next week across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. These storms will be capable of unloading large hail and high winds as well as causing flash flooding and even generating tornadoes.
The upcoming weather pattern can be enough to provide some temporary drought relief at the local level.
However, the southern storm track in the region is not likely to last long. AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, expects the southern High Plains to remain in a prime drought zone that will lead to excessive heat this summer. "Even though a significant North American Monsoon is forecast for this summer, much of the rain that falls will tend to focus on the Four Corners region and not on the southern High Plains," Pastelok said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The lack of rain from this winter and early spring, combined with frequent rounds of high winds, has left fields and grazing lands parched and prone to wildfires. Multiple large wildfires have already hit portions of Arizona and New Mexico with many still in progress.
As areas over the southern Plains struggle with drought, abnormally cold conditions with rounds of rain and late-season snow are contributing to wet fields and low evaporation rates farther to the north and northeast over the Central states this spring. Plowing and planting delays can be substantial in some areas.
"Planting of the corn crop in parts of the Midwest could be as much as three weeks behind average," Pastelok said.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Weather Forecasts
Downpours to offer some relief to drought-plagued southern Plains
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr 29, 2022 1:24 PM EDT | Updated May 1, 2022 4:05 AM EDT
In a rare move for Southern California, the region's biggest water supplier asked millions in the Los Angeles area to limit outdoor watering to one day a week amidst historic drought conditions.
AccuWeather meteorologists say parts of the southern Plains suffering from worsening drought conditions will get a little relief this weekend thanks to a temporary break in the weather pattern. But with the beneficial rainfall, however, will come some potentially damaging storms.
The agriculture industry in western Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas has been hit hard by drought over the last year. Along with livestock grazing lands, a large portion of the southern High Plains is home to significant wheat and cotton production for the U.S.
Much more rain is needed than what has fallen this past winter and so far this spring. Drought conditions range from severe to exceptional in much of the region, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Since Jan. 1, rainfall has ranged from 10-50% of average over much of the southern High Plains.
"Amarillo, Texas, has observed only 0.01 of an inch of rain this April, compared to an average near 1.50 inches, so the rainfall is desperately needed," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, adding that, "similarly in Lubbock, Texas, only a few drops of rain have been observed this month, compared to a normal of 1.33 inches." Both of these cities are in the zone where thunderstorms may fire late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
"A large percentage of the nation’s cotton crop is grown in Texas, with a high density of that in the northwestern part of the Lone Star State, and Sunday’s setup may focus on part of the densest cotton cropland," Buckingham said.
The winter wheat crop will be harvested in a south-to-north fashion across the southern and central Plains from later on in May through July. "The anticipated rain, especially across western Kansas, could be very beneficial next week," Buckingham said.
The potential for localized soaking downpours will come in two rounds or from two storm systems that are expected to dip farther south than most storms have done in many weeks.
The first storm will race southeastward across the western U.S. during the first part of this weekend.
By Sunday, this storm will be centered near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Since a front will have stalled over the southern Plains ahead of the storm, the combination of the two weather systems and lingering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be enough to allow showers and thunderstorms to erupt from portions of western and central Texas to western Oklahoma and southern Kansas Sunday night, Buckingham said.
"It is possible that the first storms may fire up even farther to the west into portions of eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado during Sunday afternoon," Buckingham stated.
Some of the storms can pack a punch in terms of severe weather as well with the most robust storms likely to produce high wind gusts, large hail and even a tornado. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 100 mph will be possible on Sunday.
The severe weather and flash flood threat will expand eastward on Monday and Monday night from northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas to portions of Missouri and Arkansas.
As the storm system travels toward the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, a front will trail to the southwest and stall over portions of the southern Plains. But that won’t be the end of the storminess. Long-range forecasts indicate that another storm system will roll in from the Pacific Ocean and travel across the interior West next week.
The extent and amount of rainfall for the southern High Plains from Tuesday to Wednesday is questionable at this point, AccuWeather meteorologists say. But, the combination of the storm, stalled front and extensive lingering moisture is likely to create another opportunity for drenching showers and severe thunderstorms in areas from western and central Texas to western parts of Oklahoma and Kansas and eastern areas of Colorado and New Mexico.
The threat of severe weather may escalate by the middle of next week across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. These storms will be capable of unloading large hail and high winds as well as causing flash flooding and even generating tornadoes.
The upcoming weather pattern can be enough to provide some temporary drought relief at the local level.
However, the southern storm track in the region is not likely to last long. AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, expects the southern High Plains to remain in a prime drought zone that will lead to excessive heat this summer. "Even though a significant North American Monsoon is forecast for this summer, much of the rain that falls will tend to focus on the Four Corners region and not on the southern High Plains," Pastelok said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The lack of rain from this winter and early spring, combined with frequent rounds of high winds, has left fields and grazing lands parched and prone to wildfires. Multiple large wildfires have already hit portions of Arizona and New Mexico with many still in progress.
As areas over the southern Plains struggle with drought, abnormally cold conditions with rounds of rain and late-season snow are contributing to wet fields and low evaporation rates farther to the north and northeast over the Central states this spring. Plowing and planting delays can be substantial in some areas.
"Planting of the corn crop in parts of the Midwest could be as much as three weeks behind average," Pastelok said.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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