Dangerous flash flooding risk in southern Texas as Gulf, leftover Lorena moisture advances
Moisture from former Tropical Rainstorm Lorena, the Gulf and a stalled front will converge over southern Texas on Monday, bringing the risk of dangerous flash flooding.
Moisture from the Gulf, former Tropical Rainstorm Lorena and a cool front will converge over parts of Texas, raising the risk of localized but dangerous flash flooding on Monday, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
“Rainfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour are possible, leading to significant flash flooding and rapidly rising water in localized areas,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Downpours capable of producing flash flooding will be most common in western and southern Texas.
A complicating factor will be the potential for one or two thunderstorm complexes to track southeastward along the stalled front. On July 4, a large complex produced many inches of rain over the Guadalupe River basin, causing deadly flooding.
This setup, which appears less extreme than that of early July, will not be limited to the Guadalupe but could also impact much of the Rio Grande Valley. Intense rain may still fall in isolated areas, bringing significant flash flooding to some rural locations and neighborhoods.
Low water crossings could be especially dangerous.
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Texas cities at risk for flash flooding on Monday include Laredo, McAllen and Brownsville.
“We urge people and businesses to have a way to receive flash flood warnings at all times and to be ready to move to higher ground, especially in low-lying neighborhoods or near small streams and rivers, which can be particularly susceptible to rapidly rising water,” Porter said.
Areas forecast to receive the heaviest downpours could receive 1–6 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 11 inches. Many of these areas are in drought, with conditions along much of the Rio Grande Valley ranging from abnormally dry to extreme drought.
Drier air will spread from the Mississippi Valley into much of Texas from Tuesday to Friday.
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