Summer Outlook for Middle East and South Asia
By
Lead International Forecaster
Updated May 19, 2021 3:04 PM EDT
Meteorological Summer begins across the Northern Hemisphere on 1 June so, what does this summer season hold in store for the Middle East region? Before taking a look ahead we will begin with a quick glance at how our forecast for the spring is working out thus far.
The actuals for the period from 1 March through 15 May are on top with our forecast from early March below the actuals. Overall we did well with the widespread warmth across the Middle East into northern India, but we missed the colder tongue from Kazakhstan to western China into Jammu and Kashmir. The precipitation forecast did fairly well hitting the wet anomalies in southwest India as well as parts of Nepal, and it hit many of the drier areas of the Middle East. However, it missed the significant wet area over the southwest Arabian Peninsula.
Now that we are heading into summer we have been looking at a few teleconnections. La Nina conditions have faded and we are now officially in a neutral ENSO phase, but many climate models show a cool pool of water over the central equatorial Pacific during the summer which may result in weak La Nina Modoki or central Pacific La Nina conditions during the summer. There is a small chance we could see a trend toward a more classic eastern Pacific La Nina starting late in the summer, though this trend to La Nina more than likely will hold off until autumn or winter. The NMME and ACCESS-S1 model from Australia’s BOM are far more bullish on the trend to La Nina, but teleconnections also seem to support the idea of a return to La Nina. The timing of any such La Nina return remains uncertain.
If we experience La Nina Modoki conditions this summer, the following graphic shows composites for precipitation and temperature anomalies across the globe from June through August during La Nina Modoki years and traditional or eastern Pacific La Nina years. The differences are subtle in some areas, but there is a slight increase in rains over the southwest Arabian Peninsula during La Nina Modoki conditions. There is also a more pronounced dry area around Afghanistan and Pakistan during La Nina Modoki years, but the biggest difference is a more extensive area of above-normal temperatures from the Mediterranean Coast to Pakistan with La Nina Modoki conditions versus traditional La Nina conditions.
Another teleconnection we looked at is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral and should remain neutral into the start of the season; however, several models agree on the idea of the IOD trending to at least weakly negative levels by the end of summer. The models disagree on the quickness and intensity of the developing negative IOD, but we are thinking weak negative IOD conditions can become a factor late in the season. A negative IOD could result in a drier conditions across portions of the Middle East late in the season, especially if it is moderate intensity.
Looking at these and several other teleconnections and the overall pattern the past few months, we came up with our top analog years for the June through August period. The analogs, much like several climate models, favor warmth across much of the Middle East with near-normal temperatures over the southern Arabian Peninsula. Precipitation during the analog years was near to below-normal across much of the Middle East and above-normal in parts of India and western Yemen.
Before diving into the the summer forecast we are bypassing much discussion on India since we released the monsoon forecast back in April. Here is the link to the monsoon outlook for those that missed it. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/2021-south-asia-monsoon-forecast/934748
Now after taking a look at everything, we came up with the following summer outlook for the region.
We believe above-normal temperatures will prevail across much of the Middle East with the exception of southwest Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and eastern Pakistan into India where we believe temperatures will average close to normal. Precipitation near to above normal in these areas should be partly responsible for limiting extreme heat in these areas. On the flip side, the expected drier areas from Lebanon and Jordan to northern Iran and Afghanistan can experience more bouts of extreme heat and will likely average 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal with local departures as much as 5 degrees Celsius above normal. The good news for these areas is that there looks to be at least some opportunities for rain from Turkey and the Mediterranean Coast to northern Iran and Afghanistan during June which may help hold off the hottest weather to July and August.
Spotty thunderstorms can fire over the mountains of Iran late in the season, but rainfall is expected to be too light to result in normal across these areas. Farther south, there can be a problem with excessive rain and areas of flooding due to seasonal thunderstorms over southwest Saudi Arabia into the higher elevations of Yemen. Some of these areas experienced flooding downpours in the spring and can encounter similar problems during the summer as a seasonal monsoon flow brings the usual push of moisture from the Arabian Sea into the southern Arabian Peninsula. A moderate negative IOD could ease heavy rainfall concerns in the southwest Arabian Peninsula late in the season. However, at this point the negative IOD is only expected to be weak so may only provide limited relief. During mid- to late summer there can be spotty diurnal thunderstorms over the higher terrain of UAE and Oman on occasion with the chance for a few thunderstorms to drift out of the mountains into the lower elevations.
Finally, we take a look at the khareef, meaning ‘autumn’ in Arabic, which is a monsoon flow into the Dhofar Governorate of Oman and Al Mahrah Governorate of Yemen that usually runs from June through September. It causes the lands to become covered in green, the hills to be surrounded by white fog, and light rain to drizzle almost 24 hours a day. Unlike the extreme hot weather in the rest of Oman from July to September, Dhofar and its famous city Salalah have a cool refreshing weather that attracts visitors from all over the world. The Covid-19 pandemic canceled the khareef festival in 2020, and it is unsure if the festival is occurring this year. In any event, as far as weather for the khareef season we are expecting a close to normal onset with precipitation overall expected to average close to normal. There is a chance precipitation can be above normal for the season, but concerns over a possible negative IOD developing later in summer lead us to lean toward normal rainfall. A weak or non-existent IOD during the summer would favor rainfall on the positive side of normal around Salalah for the season.
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Weather Blogs / Global weather
Summer Outlook for Middle East and South Asia
By Lead International Forecaster
Updated May 19, 2021 3:04 PM EDT
Meteorological Summer begins across the Northern Hemisphere on 1 June so, what does this summer season hold in store for the Middle East region? Before taking a look ahead we will begin with a quick glance at how our forecast for the spring is working out thus far.
The actuals for the period from 1 March through 15 May are on top with our forecast from early March below the actuals. Overall we did well with the widespread warmth across the Middle East into northern India, but we missed the colder tongue from Kazakhstan to western China into Jammu and Kashmir. The precipitation forecast did fairly well hitting the wet anomalies in southwest India as well as parts of Nepal, and it hit many of the drier areas of the Middle East. However, it missed the significant wet area over the southwest Arabian Peninsula.
Now that we are heading into summer we have been looking at a few teleconnections. La Nina conditions have faded and we are now officially in a neutral ENSO phase, but many climate models show a cool pool of water over the central equatorial Pacific during the summer which may result in weak La Nina Modoki or central Pacific La Nina conditions during the summer. There is a small chance we could see a trend toward a more classic eastern Pacific La Nina starting late in the summer, though this trend to La Nina more than likely will hold off until autumn or winter. The NMME and ACCESS-S1 model from Australia’s BOM are far more bullish on the trend to La Nina, but teleconnections also seem to support the idea of a return to La Nina. The timing of any such La Nina return remains uncertain.
If we experience La Nina Modoki conditions this summer, the following graphic shows composites for precipitation and temperature anomalies across the globe from June through August during La Nina Modoki years and traditional or eastern Pacific La Nina years. The differences are subtle in some areas, but there is a slight increase in rains over the southwest Arabian Peninsula during La Nina Modoki conditions. There is also a more pronounced dry area around Afghanistan and Pakistan during La Nina Modoki years, but the biggest difference is a more extensive area of above-normal temperatures from the Mediterranean Coast to Pakistan with La Nina Modoki conditions versus traditional La Nina conditions.
Another teleconnection we looked at is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral and should remain neutral into the start of the season; however, several models agree on the idea of the IOD trending to at least weakly negative levels by the end of summer. The models disagree on the quickness and intensity of the developing negative IOD, but we are thinking weak negative IOD conditions can become a factor late in the season. A negative IOD could result in a drier conditions across portions of the Middle East late in the season, especially if it is moderate intensity.
Looking at these and several other teleconnections and the overall pattern the past few months, we came up with our top analog years for the June through August period. The analogs, much like several climate models, favor warmth across much of the Middle East with near-normal temperatures over the southern Arabian Peninsula. Precipitation during the analog years was near to below-normal across much of the Middle East and above-normal in parts of India and western Yemen.
Before diving into the the summer forecast we are bypassing much discussion on India since we released the monsoon forecast back in April. Here is the link to the monsoon outlook for those that missed it. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/2021-south-asia-monsoon-forecast/934748
Now after taking a look at everything, we came up with the following summer outlook for the region.
We believe above-normal temperatures will prevail across much of the Middle East with the exception of southwest Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and eastern Pakistan into India where we believe temperatures will average close to normal. Precipitation near to above normal in these areas should be partly responsible for limiting extreme heat in these areas. On the flip side, the expected drier areas from Lebanon and Jordan to northern Iran and Afghanistan can experience more bouts of extreme heat and will likely average 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal with local departures as much as 5 degrees Celsius above normal. The good news for these areas is that there looks to be at least some opportunities for rain from Turkey and the Mediterranean Coast to northern Iran and Afghanistan during June which may help hold off the hottest weather to July and August.
Spotty thunderstorms can fire over the mountains of Iran late in the season, but rainfall is expected to be too light to result in normal across these areas. Farther south, there can be a problem with excessive rain and areas of flooding due to seasonal thunderstorms over southwest Saudi Arabia into the higher elevations of Yemen. Some of these areas experienced flooding downpours in the spring and can encounter similar problems during the summer as a seasonal monsoon flow brings the usual push of moisture from the Arabian Sea into the southern Arabian Peninsula. A moderate negative IOD could ease heavy rainfall concerns in the southwest Arabian Peninsula late in the season. However, at this point the negative IOD is only expected to be weak so may only provide limited relief. During mid- to late summer there can be spotty diurnal thunderstorms over the higher terrain of UAE and Oman on occasion with the chance for a few thunderstorms to drift out of the mountains into the lower elevations.
Finally, we take a look at the khareef, meaning ‘autumn’ in Arabic, which is a monsoon flow into the Dhofar Governorate of Oman and Al Mahrah Governorate of Yemen that usually runs from June through September. It causes the lands to become covered in green, the hills to be surrounded by white fog, and light rain to drizzle almost 24 hours a day. Unlike the extreme hot weather in the rest of Oman from July to September, Dhofar and its famous city Salalah have a cool refreshing weather that attracts visitors from all over the world. The Covid-19 pandemic canceled the khareef festival in 2020, and it is unsure if the festival is occurring this year. In any event, as far as weather for the khareef season we are expecting a close to normal onset with precipitation overall expected to average close to normal. There is a chance precipitation can be above normal for the season, but concerns over a possible negative IOD developing later in summer lead us to lean toward normal rainfall. A weak or non-existent IOD during the summer would favor rainfall on the positive side of normal around Salalah for the season.
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