Sluggish drying, limited warming trend for Northeast through Memorial Day
Don't expect improvement by leaps and bounds in the Northeast for the Memorial Day weekend, but there will be positive trends following the cold rainstorm.
The roof of this shed was torn off in Unionville, Pennsylvania, on May 21. Severe weather swept through this region bringing heavy rain and strong winds. A tornado was confirmed in Butler County.
After a stretch of weather more typical of March, the northeastern United States will trend drier and warmer into Memorial Day. However, AccuWeather meteorologists caution that the holiday weekend won’t be rain-free for all, and no heat waves are in the forecast anytime soon.
Keep the jackets, umbrellas and mud boots handy for outdoor plans this weekend, especially over the interior Northeast.
Even though the nor'easter that brought days of drenching rain to many areas has moved out, lingering effects from the storm could still spark some showers and spotty thunderstorms.
Most of the activity will focus from the western Great Lakes eastward to interior New England. At times, a shower could sneak east of the mountains and drift as far as the Interstate 95 corridor and the beaches.
The weather pattern may prove frustrating for many across the interior Northeast, with only brief glimpses of sunshine between rounds of gusty showers. In some areas, the cycle may repeat multiple times a day.
The sun is intense this time of year—just about a month out from the summer solstice—and it will gradually burn holes in the cloud cover. As it does, temperatures will slowly rise from day to day while the soggy landscape begins to dry out.
For example, high temperatures in New York City will trend upward from a high of 64 on Saturday to the low 70s on Memorial Day. The historical average high for late May in the city is in the mid-70s.
In the Pocono Mountains of eastern Pennsylvania—a popular camping destination—high temperatures will trend into the low 60s by Monday, following a chilly start to the weekend in the low 50s. Nights will be downright chilly for late May, with lows mainly in the 40s.
Strong sunshine combined with abnormally chilly air higher in the atmosphere will help fuel billowing clouds, showers and thunder. A few locations may even catch a brief thundershower with small hail.
Overall, the extent of showers across the region will diminish each day through Memorial Day.
Those marching in parades or participating in 5K races may welcome the cool conditions, but those fishing or swimming may not.
While Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer, beachgoers should remember that water temperatures this time of year are still notoriously chilly. Of the three major summer holiday weekends, Memorial Day typically features the coldest water. In many cases, the warmest waters occur by Labor Day weekend.
For many, surf temperatures in the 50s to low 60s are dangerous, increasing the risk of cold water shock, muscle cramps and even drowning. Water temperatures in streams and ponds are similar and—in some cases—significantly lower.
Memorial Day is likely to be the driest and sunniest day of the extended holiday weekend. As a result, many parades and outdoor services may proceed with little or no interference from showers.
AccuWeather meteorologists say it won't take long for rain to return to the Northeast by the middle of the week. Cooler-than-typical air is likely to linger through at least the first weekend of June.
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