Is a new Super Typhoon brewing the west Pacific?
The short answer is maybe, but regardless of whether a developing area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of Guam ever becomes a super typhoon, it will pose serious risks parts of the basin over the next 7-14 days.
The above image, based on the 0Z, showers a powerful typhoon bearing down on Taiwan next weekend
The above image also showers a powerful typhoon bearing down on Taiwan next weekend based on the 6Z GFS.
The scary consistency of the images above does not give me a good feeling for the people of Taiwan.
In the short term there will be no impacts to land and development is not expected until Saturday or Sunday; however, this blooming tropical threat could become a dangerous typhoon by the time it approaches Guam early next week.
While Guam is not expected to see the worst that this potential storm has to offer, it could endure locally damaging winds and flooding.
After passing Guam the storm will track toward the Philippines and Taiwan, crossing through an area of open ocean with warm waters and relatively low wind shear.
This zone is what I refer to as "Super Typhoon Alley", as I have seen numerous storms track through these areas and go through a period of rapid intensification, often resulting in the storm achieving super typhoon status with sustained winds equal to or greater than 130 knots (150 mph).
I would not be surprised at all to this happen once again with this budding cyclone.
The eventual track would likely take it somewhere between the northern Philippines and the Ryukyu Islands with potential impacts also looming for China.
I don't see a trough strong enough to hook the storm northward at this time; however, the Korean Peninsula and Japan should remain on alert, especially considering both have dealt with significant flooding in recent weeks.
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