100-year and 500-year floods may become commonplace by the end of this century
By
Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Dec 7, 2020 5:35 PM EDT
By the end of this century, extreme coastal floods that have only occurred once every 100 years in the area surrounding Jamaica Bay in New York may be as common as once every year by the end of this century due to climate change.
Thousands of homes currently surround Jamaica Bay, New York, which is not too far from New York City and right next to JFK International Airport.
Researchers from the Stevens Institute of Technology ran flood simulations for Jamaica Bay based on projected increases of greenhouse gases by the end of the 21st century.
Taking into account projected sea level rises from the melting of land-based glaciers and thermal expansion along with the forecasts for more intense and slower-moving hurricanes and tropical storms, the team determined that extreme flood and coastal erosion events will become much more common in the near future.
Based on their projections, 100-year floods in the Jamaica Bay would become nine-year floods by 2030-2050 and one-year floods (one every year on average) by 2080-2100.
Also, 500-year floods would occur once every 143 years by 2030-2050 and once every four years by 2080-2100.
The goals of this study are to help develop coastal flood defenses and create policies to reduce future flood risk to homes and businesses in this highly populated area.
"The framework we used for this study can be replicated to demonstrate how flooding in other regions will look by the end of the century to help them mitigate risk and best protect communities and assets in impacted areas," said Reza Marsooli, who is the lead author of this study.
This study was recently published in the journal Climate Change.
A related story on New York City flood risks was published by NASA last year.
Report a Typo
Weather Blogs / Global climate change
100-year and 500-year floods may become commonplace by the end of this century
By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Dec 7, 2020 5:35 PM EDT
By the end of this century, extreme coastal floods that have only occurred once every 100 years in the area surrounding Jamaica Bay in New York may be as common as once every year by the end of this century due to climate change.
Thousands of homes currently surround Jamaica Bay, New York, which is not too far from New York City and right next to JFK International Airport.
Researchers from the Stevens Institute of Technology ran flood simulations for Jamaica Bay based on projected increases of greenhouse gases by the end of the 21st century.
Taking into account projected sea level rises from the melting of land-based glaciers and thermal expansion along with the forecasts for more intense and slower-moving hurricanes and tropical storms, the team determined that extreme flood and coastal erosion events will become much more common in the near future.
Based on their projections, 100-year floods in the Jamaica Bay would become nine-year floods by 2030-2050 and one-year floods (one every year on average) by 2080-2100.
Also, 500-year floods would occur once every 143 years by 2030-2050 and once every four years by 2080-2100.
The goals of this study are to help develop coastal flood defenses and create policies to reduce future flood risk to homes and businesses in this highly populated area.
"The framework we used for this study can be replicated to demonstrate how flooding in other regions will look by the end of the century to help them mitigate risk and best protect communities and assets in impacted areas," said Reza Marsooli, who is the lead author of this study.
This study was recently published in the journal Climate Change.
A related story on New York City flood risks was published by NASA last year.
Report a Typo