A closed low is out in the east-central Pacific at about 40N, 142W. This low will not move a lot over the next three days. It does wobble closer to the coast but only enough maybe to bring a little rain to the northwest California and western Oregon coastal areas Sunday and Monday.
But the models all agree that eventually the low will be ejected to the east Tuesday and Wednesday and will move inland across California Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. In fact, what is so scary about this long-range forecast is how much the models agree. This has not been the case over the last couple of months, but this uncharacteristic agreement lends itself to a higher degree of confidence than is normal. Here is what the GFS has for the 500 mb pattern next Wednesday morning.
Notice on the above map another closed low farther out in the Pacific. That feature both the GFS and European brings toward California later Thursday through Friday. Here is the GFS for midday Friday.
This is being portrayed as a strong, wetter and colder storm than the first and could have a major impact on a large area the later portions of next week.
Usually by this time of year, the rainy season is starting to let up in California. However, this year, it seems, the last few weeks through next week look more like the start of the rainy season.
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A quick-moving storm will bring moderate rain to Southern California through Saturday night. Is more rain on the way next week?
The recent storm dumped plenty of snow across the Sierra, but how does the season stand?
An active week of weather is expected across the western U.S. with one storm system sweeping across California through Tuesday and another one arriving in the Northwest Wednesday.
Rain and mountain snow will continue through Friday in the Pacific Northwest. Heavier rain from a "river" of tropical moisture may lead to flooding over the weekend.
A strong storm system will bring the first significant round of rain to Southern California early this week.
Santa Ana winds will whip across Southern California again Saturday night into Sunday morning leading to an increased fire threat.