Weather pattern update into March

Major teleconnections pretty much all argue for a continuation of above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of North America over the next two weeks with storminess across the Midwest. There is also good forecast model consensus for this idea.

I will note, however, that there are strong indications for a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event to take place over the polar regions starting mid-February. Many times, but not all times, these SSW events can signal a major pattern change two to three weeks after the event has started. What we typically see is a southern shift of the polar vortex, which can drive Arctic air deep into the mid-latitudes with high latitude blocking. The question is where in the mid-latitudes? We should get a better handle on this over the next week or two. But if this SSW event behaves as they typically do, there is a chance for a return to winterlike conditions across central and eastern North America starting in early March.