Update on Long Range Forecast into June

5/09/2011, 7:35:46 AM

Before I get to the long range, a slow-moving storm dumped over 75 mm, or 3 inches, of rain over parts of New Brunswick since yesterday. The good news is that the heavy rain is over; unfortunately, river and stream flooding is taking place. Serious flooding is certainly a concern along the St. John River over the next several days.

The radar image from Maine shows the total radar measured rainfall over the past 24 hours. As you can see, large parts of New Brunswick received over 75 mm, or 3 inches, of rainfall, with some spots getting over 100 mm. The radar does not reach out into eastern New Brunswick, where some of the heaviest rain fell.

Environment Canada posted the actual measured storm totals below for New Brunswick.....

It appears that there will be some rain on Saturday, but probably less than 20 mm for most of New Brunswick. A nearly stationary ocean storm will have to be watched early next week as it could send more rain into the Maritimes, especially Nova Scotia, but some models keep the storm far enough out at sea, keeping rainfall at a minimum. It does look like a sustained 4-5 day period of dry weather from northeast Ontario through Quebec starting late Saturday or Sunday.

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Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long range model weekly forecast output, which now goes out into early June. It does not look to summery. What a surprise!

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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