The NOAA image below shows the latest sea surface temperature anomalies across the north Atlantic. As you can clearly see, there is a very large area of much above normal sea surface water surrounding Atlantic Canada.
Much of the region covered in red currently has seas surface water averaging at least 3 degrees C. (5.4 F) above normal with a smaller pocket close to + 4 C. (7.2 F)
The presence of this warmer water has lead to higher humidity levels, which in turn has had a pronounced warming effect on the nighttime minimum temperatures across large parts of Atlantic Canada much of this summer.
With higher humidity, there can be more clouds and the temperature cannot drop as low as it normally can.
The effect is clear in a couple of locations. Halifax, Nova Scotia has only had a total of 6 days since June 1st that have dropped below the normal nighttime minimum. In St. John's, Newfoundland there has been a total of 5 days since July 1st where the temperature dropped below the normal minimum.
Seasonal forecast model update
A heads up.....the new seasonal ECMWF model forecast outlook was just released a few hours ago and I am digesting that information right now. This seasonal outlook now extends out into the heart of the upcoming winter.
I will try to have a special update on this later this evening.
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Some snow today across southwestern Ontario as the west remains under strong high pressure ridge.
Significant snow is likely for parts of New Brunswick this weekend.
Cold air expected to spill into eastern North America in about 10 to 14 days.
Arctic air likely to retreat well to the north as we go into early December.
Active weather pattern through next week.