A significant storm system will track up into the Ohio Valley Wednesday then into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. The storm will bring a wide assortment of precipitation types to eastern and Atlantic Canada Wednesday into Thursday.

Latest computer models have come closer together with the forecast track, but there are still enough differences that could impact the forecast for parts of Ontario and Quebec.

Below is my own initial snowfall forecast for the region for the Wed-Thur storm.....

1. The European model trended a little more south/east with the axis of snow. I currently lean a little more toward the slightly farther N/W GFS solution. I will update the situation tomorrow as details become more clear.

2. This will not be a cold storm, thus the snow will be heavier and wetter.

3. Precipitation will likely start out as wet snow from London, Ont to Hamilton and the GTA on Wednesday, but should quickly go over to plain rain by evening after a small slushy accumulation (mostly on non-paved areas).

4. Just north/west of the GTA and up toward the St. Lawrence River Valley it will be more of a battle Wednesday night with wet snow/sleet/ice eventually going over to rain.i

5. I believe the heaviest snow will fall across the Bruce Peninsula then over toward Parry Sound and then well northwest of Ottawa.

6. Southeast winds should cause the snow to change to ice then plain rain in the Montreal area by the end of the day on Wednesday.

7. Snow will change to a mix then rain from south to north across New Brunswick later Wednesday afternoon through the night.

8. As the storm exits northeast Thursday afternoon the precipitation will change back to snow showers across southern Ontario.

9. Tough call in the Barrie, Ontario area as some models show significant accumulations in the area. Some of that may be due to additional snow on the back side of the storm. I do think there will be some sleet mixing in at times in the Barrie area.

Specific storm snowfall forecasts......

Windsor, Ont 6-8 cm London, Ont 3-6 cm Hamilton, Ont tr-1 cm slushy snow Toronto, Ont 2-4 cm wet, slushy snow Barrie, Ont 15-20 cm Kingston, Ont 1-3 cm (wind direction unfavorable for much snow) Ottawa, Ont 7-12 cm Montreal, Que 2-5 cm Quebec City 10-15 cm Saint John, NB 1-2 cm Sudbury, Ont....10-15 cm North Bay, Ont....15-25 cm

Looking ahead.......

Very cold air mass with wind will spread into the eastern Prairies and northwest Ontario on Saturday. This air mass will continue southeast and cover the eastern Prairies through Quebec on Sunday. The cold will begin to retreat early next week from west to east.

After that cold spell there will still be some opportunities for more cold and snow in the east the first half of March, but the air masses will not be as cold as the source regions across the far north are just not that cold relative to normal. Lack of ice on the Great Lakes should also help modify these air masses as well.

No signs of any sustained cold across western Canada for the next 8-12 days. Winter has really seemed to have given up across the West.

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