My Latest Thoughts on Weather Pattern

FYI, I will be out of the office and away from the weather maps through all of next week, so there will not be any posts on this blog during that time. I will be back blogging for the week of Dec. 15.

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My thoughts on upcoming events and the overall pattern

1. The Sunday night/Monday storm systems heading up into eastern Canada will remain split apart and thus fairly weak. The systems will also move fairly quickly, which will limit the amount of precipitation and snowfall.

Based on what I am seeing, I expect a general 2-8 cm of snow followed by a light mix of drizzle Sunday night for much of southern Ontario including the GTA. Precipitation should quickly wind down from southwest to northeast across Southern Ontario Monday morning which is good news for the morning drive.

Farther northeast, the air will be colder, and the snow will become a little more widespread. I expect a general 6-10 cm of snow later Sunday night over eastern Ontario and perhaps as much as 8-15 cm the first half of Monday as you get into southern Quebec. The morning commute will likely be a slow one on Monday in Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec.

As the steadier snow moves out Monday afternoon over Quebec, it may change to a light freezing rain/drizzle or sleet before ending.

I expect a general 6-12 cm of snow centered around Monday afternoon over New Brunswick, away from the south coast.

Much of Nova Scotia, PEI and coastal NB will initially get snow Monday, but it will likely change over to rain during the evening as milder ocean air moves in.

2. Behind this system, two waves of cold will spread into eastern Canada and this will trigger lake-effect snow.

The first outbreak will likely be Monday night downwind of the Great Lakes with the snow bands orientated more in a west to east fashion.

The second outbreak will come in Tuesday night and Wednesday and this one could be significant for some areas with WNW to ESE orientated snow bands.

3. The overall pattern will favor cold for much of eastern Canada over the next seven days.

4. I do not see any major storm systems for most of southern Canada over the next week.

5. Milder, Pacific air should return to BC around Dec. 11 as the core of the cold shifts east.

6. There are indications that another Siberian high pressure system could drop southeastward and bring another round of frigid air into the Prairies around Dec. 12/13. After that, there are some hints that the temperature pattern may trend back to normal or perhaps above, though there is still plenty of debate on this idea.

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