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Hurricane Chris is expected to accelerate northeastward through Wednesday night and weaken gradually as it moves over cooler water. By Thursday, Chris will likely transition to a tropical storm and begin to lose some of its tropical characteristics as the center takes aim toward the Avalon Peninsula in southeastern Newfoundland.
I expect tropical-storm-force conditions (wind gusts 80-95 km/h) for a few hours over portions of the Avalon Peninsula from late afternoon into the evening as the storm races northeastward. The strongest winds will likely be found down near Cape Race.
The strongest winds will be just south and east of the storm center track, while the heaviest rain will run north and west of the storm center track.
At this point, I think that the storm center will pass across the central portion of the Avalon Peninsula. If the storm track shifts farther south/east, then places such as St. John's will get more rain and less wind.
In terms of rainfall, I expect a general 40-70 mm of rain. Luckily, Chris will be moving quite rapidly, which will limit the time of heaviest rain.
Overall impacts will be localized flooding, especially from the northern Avalon Peninsula through places such as Marystown, Clarenville and Bonavista.
The winds may be strong enough to cause some tree damage and power outages, especially across the southern half of the Avalon Peninsula.
High seas are anticipated offshore through early Friday.
Next week pattern
The overall pattern will support below-average temperatures for much of the Prairie region next week and perhaps into the following week.
Temperatures should average above normal from Quebec through most of Atlantic Canada next week.
In between, we may see more rainfall compared to normal from Manitoba to Ontario.
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My thoughts on what the weather pattern may look like over the next two weeks.
Latest clues to the weekly long-range weather pattern into the start of September
Atmospheric signals look fairly weak for mid-August, which lowers confidence in the long-range outlook.
Latest clues to the long-range through mid-August.
Warmest weather relative to normal over the next 10 days will be across Atlantic Canada.
Tropical storm conditions to impact parts of southeastern Newfoundland later Thursday as Chris approaches.