Canada 2019 fall outlook

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1. After a quick start to the wildfire season in western Canada, activity has leveled off in recent weeks due to cooler and wetter weather. However, the fire season is far from done, and based on our current fall outlook (warmer and drier than normal first half of fall), we believe there may be a second surge in fire activity during the month of September from British Columbia to Saskatchewan. This pattern may also lead to more widespread smoke and hazy conditions across the western half of the country.

2. Main storm track this fall will be directed into northern British Columbia, but this will also feed mild, Pacific air into much of the West as well, which may lead to a week or so delay in the annual freeze for many locations. The snow season in the Rockies is also expected to get off to a slower start later this fall.

3. During the month of October, there may be an early-season surge of unseasonably cold air directed into the eastern Prairies and northwestern Ontario. I expect the first freeze to occur close to or a few days earlier than normal from eastern Saskatchewan through Manitoba.

4. The drier and warmer conditions may aid in the fall harvest across the Prairies during the month of September.

5. Fall will get off to a late start around the Great Lakes and into Quebec as the main storm track allows for surges of late-summer season warmth and humidity. The Great Lakes are also expected to remain warmer than normal through at least October. Wetter conditions are anticipated from the Lake Superior region through northern Quebec this fall. This pattern may delay the annual first freeze by a week or two from southern Ontario to southern Quebec and the Maritimes, which would extend the growing season.

6. Any surges of cold air coming down across the warmer Great Lakes during October may lead to an outbreak of thunderstorms and waterspouts.

7. Tropical activity in the Atlantic is expected to steadily pick up late this month through September and may linger well into October or even November. Based on current projections, we expect a near-average risk for a tropical cyclone impact in Atlantic Canada this season.

8. Unusually warm sea surface water along the West Coast will also likely have a warming influence across western British Columbia this fall.

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