Canada 2018-2019 winter outlook

The 2018-19 AccuWeather winter forecast for Canada

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<strong>Main forecast points............</strong>

--Winter weather pattern expected to be dominated by a developing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino may reach moderate strength by midwinter. Warmer-than-normal water off British Columbia, throughout the Great Lakes and off Atlantic Canada will also influence the winter weather in those particular regions. However, I am also concerned there may be other factors at play that may partially cancel out the typical impacts of El Nino.

--We expect much of western Canada to experience a fairly mild winter in terms of temperatures and snowfall as a flow of milder Pacific air will tend to cut off invasions of Arctic air.

--A majority of the snowfall in the western mountains and ski areas will come early in the season before drier weather takes hold.

--Overall, expect below-average snowfall for the ski areas of the Canadian Rockies this upcoming winter.

--Primary storm track off the Pacific will be directed into northwestern British Columbia and the Yukon Territory, with above-normal snowfall. There will also be a more southern storm track near California.

--Chinook winds will be quite common across southern Alberta this winter as a westerly flow of air dominates. Chinook winds are usually very strong and can bring sharp rises in temperature downwind of the Rockies.

--The winter will be a fairly typical one across the eastern Prairies, with the highest chance for Arctic blasts the second half of the season.

--Less ice coverage compared to normal this winter across the Great Lakes. Despite the warmer lakes, lake-effect snowfall downwind of the lakes is expected to be below average this season due to a lack of Arctic air. February may actually have the greatest lake effect due to a higher probability of cold spells.

--The warmer lakes will have a warming influence (especially with nighttime temperatures) on areas near the lakes this winter, which will of course impact overall average temperatures in this region.

--Main storm track in the East will be directed toward Atlantic Canada with the potential for several large storms from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland this season. Heavier-than-normal snowfall is anticipated from southeastern Quebec through New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island this winter.

--Majority of Arctic blasts will be focused into northeastern Canada, but they may shift more toward eastern Ontario and Quebec late in the winter.

--Snowfall will be below average for much of cottage and ski country in Ontario, but near to above average for the Quebec resorts.

--I expect slightly below-average snowfall in the GTA this season.

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