Texas faces major flood risk as rounds of severe weather continue
A volatile weather pattern will result in more severe weather across the central U.S., as well as a serious flash flood risk in Texas, which could put more lives at risk later this week as border restrictions are lifted, AccuWeather forecasters say.
An unusual weather pattern is on the move, bringing rain into the weekend. Days and days of rain and flooding are headed to Texas this weekend.
A tumultuous weather pattern has gripped the Central states since late last week, which has resulted in destructive hail, damaging tornadoes and even a delayed Taylor Swift concert. AccuWeather meteorologists say additional bouts of severe weather, along with a growing flash flood risk, will pose a threat to lives and property across the nation's midsection through the weekend.
The feistiest thunderstorms focus solely on the Plains during the latter part of the week. By the weekend, a life-threatening flash flooding situation could evolve over Texas.
The greater risk for intense hail, wind and even a tornado or two into Tuesday night zeroed in on the central Plains. A possible tornado was spotted in Fort Riley, Kansas, Tuesday afternoon, causing a United States Army installation to issue a shelter in place. Flash flooding and hail was also reported in the state, including heavy rains downing trees in the city of Pratt, Kansas.
Storm damage also destroyed roofs and overturned vehicles in the Jasper, Missouri, area on Tuesday evening.
Plains states to remain in severe weather danger zone into Thursday
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a broad, slow-moving storm that is expected to take shape across the Front Range of the Rockies. This storm, that has already produced a bevy of tornado warnings in Colorado, will keep the Plains as the focal point for severe thunderstorms into Thursday. In the late afternoon hours of Wednesday, a possible tornado touched ground around Oberlin, Kansas, followed by another possible tornado in Akron, Colorado in the early evening.
Thursday into Thursday night, the severe weather zone will shift slightly eastward to encompass places such as Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Omaha, Nebraska; Wichita, Kansas; and Oklahoma City. For some locations, this will be the third day in a row with the risk of severe weather.
Into Thursday, risks will encompass the whole gamut of severe weather hazards, such as large hail and high winds capable of toppling trees, power lines and even high-profile vehicles. Several tornadoes can also occur, especially in the high risk area encompassing portions of Kansas and Oklahoma.
"A lot of the same areas that will be the target of thunderstorms these days could use the rain. Most locations are experiencing severe, extreme or even exceptional drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. With how dry it's been, however, too much rain could more easily lead to flash flooding," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
The dry, hard ground has a more difficult time of absorbing heavy rainfall, resulting in an excess of run off, forecasters say.
At the very least, motorists traveling across the major interstates across the central United States should be prepared to face times of slow travel as a result of downpours from thunderstorms.
Heavy rain, flash flood risk to increase in Texas as Title 42 expires
AccuWeather meteorologists expect severe weather risks to wane across the northern and central Plains heading into the weekend. Farther south, however, dangerous flooding will unfold.
"An extended period of rain and thunderstorms is expected across western, southern and central Texas from late this week and into the weekend, leading to the risk of widespread flooding in some areas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The core of heaviest rain is expected to fall from near San Antonio into the Hill Country west of the city."
Rainfall can reach 8-12 inches (200-300 mm) across a portion of south-central Texas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm) possible in spots. Outside of this zone of the heaviest rain, 1-2 inches (25-50 mm), or more, can fall.
AccuWeather's experts warn that the situation could turn life-threatening, especially along the U.S.-Mexico border where officials are bracing for a migrant surge as Title 42 is set to expire on Thursday, May 11.
“I’m concerned about the already challenging and dynamic situation along the Southern border becoming even more problematic given the risk for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, poorly timed in the immediate aftermath of Title 42 expiring," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
"Rapidly rising and quickly flowing water associated with flash flooding can be a significant threat for people in the vicinity of the Southern border and also farther northeast in Texas," Porter said. "Should flash flooding occur near the border, a serious humanitarian situation could evolve.”
The greatest risk of flash flooding near the Rio Grande may occur in the vicinity of the major ports of entry of Eagle Pass and Laredo from Friday into Sunday.
In addition to the flash flooding risk, there will be a risk of severe weather, at least on Friday.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the heavy rain across Texas in the days to come.
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