Severe weather, tornado forecast for US in 2025
Thunderstorms and tornadoes are starting to erupt more frequently across the United States as severe weather season begins, and the worst of the storms could happen outside of Tornado Alley.
AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok looks at what severe weather is ahead for spring.
Spring has arrived, and with it, the peak of the severe weather season across the United States, and forecasters say the worst of the storms and tornadoes might occur outside of the traditional Tornado Alley.
During March, April and May, conditions align to create severe weather. Cold air from Canada collides with warm, moist air from the Gulf, providing the fuel and energy for life-threatening thunderstorms to develop across the central and eastern U.S.
Worst of severe weather to focus east of Tornado Alley
"This can be a spring where the Mississippi Valley has much more severe storms than Tornado Alley," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained.
The focal point of storms in this area is due to a combination of a large, persistent area of high pressure parked over the Southwest that could limit thunderstorms into part of the Plains and unusually warm waters in the Gulf, which will have a strong influence on severe weather.
Farther north, the start of spring may feel more like a continuation of winter, putting a lid on the threat of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes compared to last year when severe weather made an early appearance in these areas.
"Periods of cool and more stable air can cross the Great Lakes, lowering the threat of widespread severe weather this spring across the eastern Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and Northeast," Pastelok said.
Tornadoes, storms to ramp up in April, May
"Severe weather can expand into the central Plains during April, but the primary area is still the Mississippi, Tennessee and western Ohio valleys," Pastelok explained.
Thunderstorms will become even more widespread by May, when a shift in the overall weather pattern will open the door for more storms across the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and across parts of the traditional Tornado Alley.
The chance for long-lived, destructive storms known as derechos will also be on the rise late in the spring and into the summer. Derechos are also known as "inland hurricanes" due to their intense winds and often widespread damage.
"Though it is early to determine where these may form, we are leaning toward the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley based on the pattern forecast and research," Pastelok said.
A potential tornado churning near Sulphur Springs, Texas. (AccuWeather/Tony Laubach)
How many tornadoes will touch down in 2025?
The 2024 tornado season was one of the worst on record, with 1,855 tornadoes, including over 500 in May. The upcoming season is not expected to be as busy but could still finish above the historical average.
In typical fashion, severe weather in 2025 will gradually ramp up from March through May. AccuWeather is predicting 75 to 150 tornadoes in March, 200 to 300 in April and 250 to 350 in May, all of which are near or above the 30-year historical average.
For the year as a whole, 1,300 to 1,450 tornadoes are foreseen, compared to the historical average of 1,225.
Now is the time for people across the country to prepare for the possibility of a tornado, including having a safety plan in place and an emergency severe weather kit at the ready. While the bulk of the tornadoes in 2025 are forecast to focus on the central and southern U.S., they can happen anywhere in the country.
In 2024, tornadoes were reported in every state across the contiguous U.S., with the exception of Nevada, Vermont and Maine.
Make sure to download the free AccuWeather app to receive important weather alerts for your area when severe weather strikes.
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