Rounds of drenching thunderstorms to raise flood risk across the South into midweek
By
Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Feb 9, 2020 2:39 PM EDT
Less than a week after severe weather rolled through the South, dropping tornadoes, flooding rain and snow, another dose of wet weather is on tap.
Many of the same locales that dealt with the last round of adverse weather will face similar threats from the next round this week.
Many area rivers, creeks and streams are still running well above average compared to historical norms across the South and Southeast. According to the USGS WaterWatch, a number of gauges are recording water levels near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
The atmospheric pattern is set up in such a way that southerly winds will be able to draw warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South into midweek.
A few thunderstorms that erupted across the lower Mississippi River valley Sunday night were able to produce large hail and localized flash flooding.
Similarly on Monday, feisty thunderstorms tracked across the same areas, prompting numerous flash flood warnings.
Heavy rain on Monday has already resulted in road closures and washouts in Mississippi. Unfortunately, more wet weather in the forecast will only exacerbate the issues.
Many of the areas that will see rounds of wet weather have already observed between 100-300 percent of their average rainfall to date this year.
With the ground saturated and rivers swollen across the region, the soil is not able to absorb any additional water, leading to an increased risk of flash and river flooding in the area.
With many locales already picking up rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches Monday and Monday night, a brief heavy shower can prompt flash flooding over the next few days.
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A brief reprieve from widespread heavy rain is expected Tuesday for some of the hardest hit areas, but conditions will not last long as another wave of moisture blossoms into a steady rain across eastern Texas on Tuesday.
As that storm system tracks eastward, this next round of wet weather is once again expected to track across many of the same areas from Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As a powerful wave of upper level energy tracks into the South, another round of severe weather is expected to erupt. At this time, all hazards that come along with thunderstorms are possible, including hail, damaging straight-line winds, isolated tornadoes and flash flooding.
Places like Jackson, Mississippi; Tuscaloosa, Alabama and even cities as far north as Nashville, Tennessee may have to deal with damaging thunderstorms later in the day Wednesday.
Depending on the exact track of the storm system, the area of heaviest rain may align itself farther north across the mid-South as the system is expected to lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night.
This would bring an increased flood threat to places like Nashville, Chattanooga and Knoxville, Tennessee.
While the steadiest and heaviest rain may target the mid-South on Wednesday and Wednesday night, that does not mean the Deep South will be in the clear.
As the storm system lifts off, rainfall ahead of a cold front sweeping through the region will likely keep wet weather in place across the Deep South and Southeast from Wednesday night into Thursday.
Many locales in these regions can expect 3-5 inches of rainfall between Monday and Thursday morning. Where storms repeatedly track over the same area, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches is possible.
Dry conditions are set to return across the hardest-hit areas by Thursday. Along with the dry conditions, noticeably cooler temperatures will filter into the South late week.
An area of high pressure that is expected to settle in over the region should keep conditions largely dry through the weekend, allowing river levels to fall and flood cleanup to begin.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Severe Weather
Rounds of drenching thunderstorms to raise flood risk across the South into midweek
By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Published Feb 9, 2020 2:39 PM EDT
Less than a week after severe weather rolled through the South, dropping tornadoes, flooding rain and snow, another dose of wet weather is on tap.
Many of the same locales that dealt with the last round of adverse weather will face similar threats from the next round this week.
Many area rivers, creeks and streams are still running well above average compared to historical norms across the South and Southeast. According to the USGS WaterWatch, a number of gauges are recording water levels near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
The atmospheric pattern is set up in such a way that southerly winds will be able to draw warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South into midweek.
A few thunderstorms that erupted across the lower Mississippi River valley Sunday night were able to produce large hail and localized flash flooding.
Similarly on Monday, feisty thunderstorms tracked across the same areas, prompting numerous flash flood warnings.
Heavy rain on Monday has already resulted in road closures and washouts in Mississippi. Unfortunately, more wet weather in the forecast will only exacerbate the issues.
Many of the areas that will see rounds of wet weather have already observed between 100-300 percent of their average rainfall to date this year.
With the ground saturated and rivers swollen across the region, the soil is not able to absorb any additional water, leading to an increased risk of flash and river flooding in the area.
With many locales already picking up rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches Monday and Monday night, a brief heavy shower can prompt flash flooding over the next few days.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
A brief reprieve from widespread heavy rain is expected Tuesday for some of the hardest hit areas, but conditions will not last long as another wave of moisture blossoms into a steady rain across eastern Texas on Tuesday.
As that storm system tracks eastward, this next round of wet weather is once again expected to track across many of the same areas from Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As a powerful wave of upper level energy tracks into the South, another round of severe weather is expected to erupt. At this time, all hazards that come along with thunderstorms are possible, including hail, damaging straight-line winds, isolated tornadoes and flash flooding.
Places like Jackson, Mississippi; Tuscaloosa, Alabama and even cities as far north as Nashville, Tennessee may have to deal with damaging thunderstorms later in the day Wednesday.
Depending on the exact track of the storm system, the area of heaviest rain may align itself farther north across the mid-South as the system is expected to lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night.
This would bring an increased flood threat to places like Nashville, Chattanooga and Knoxville, Tennessee.
While the steadiest and heaviest rain may target the mid-South on Wednesday and Wednesday night, that does not mean the Deep South will be in the clear.
As the storm system lifts off, rainfall ahead of a cold front sweeping through the region will likely keep wet weather in place across the Deep South and Southeast from Wednesday night into Thursday.
Many locales in these regions can expect 3-5 inches of rainfall between Monday and Thursday morning. Where storms repeatedly track over the same area, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches is possible.
Related:
Dry conditions are set to return across the hardest-hit areas by Thursday. Along with the dry conditions, noticeably cooler temperatures will filter into the South late week.
An area of high pressure that is expected to settle in over the region should keep conditions largely dry through the weekend, allowing river levels to fall and flood cleanup to begin.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo