Northeast Texas at risk for renewed flooding as more heavy rain eyes southern US
There is the potential for another foot of rain to fall on parts of northeastern Texas next week, prompting renewed flooding, while other portions of the southern United States will see rising rivers and streams.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno and Joe Lundberg break down the long-range forecast for mid-May.
Storm clouds gathered and unloaded tremendous rainfall that triggered flooding in northeastern Texas multiple times this spring. Unfortunately, the atmosphere will hit the replay button into mid-May with more rounds of rain coming. That will renew flooding in some areas and trigger flooding in places that have dodged surging waters, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
In northeastern Texas, in much of the zone from Interstate 10 to I-20, rainfall has been 150 to 300% of the historical average, and much of the 10-20 inches of rain that have fallen in this area fell over a few days.
A man waves at Texas Parks & Wildlife Department game wardens as they arrive by boat to rescue residents from floodwaters in Liberty County, Texas, on Saturday, May 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi)
The rainfall triggered flash flood emergencies and moderate to major flooding along the Navasota, Trinity, Sabine, Brazos and Neches rivers, to name a few. While most rivers in the region have crested, some near sea level were still surging heading into the end of the week. Regardless, many streams and rivers will remain high as additional rounds of rain line up.
A couple of days of dry weather will follow for much of the Southern states into part of Mother's Day weekend. However, it will not be enough to prevent new flooding as heavy rain returns to the region from Sunday through the middle of next week.
An area of low pressure, or a storm, will form over central Texas on Saturday night and travel eastward along the upper Gulf coast from Sunday to Tuesday. This track has trended farther to the north, as AccuWeather meteorologists warned it could do. That more northerly track will put the area of heaviest rain in the zone from I-10 to I-20 from northeastern Texas to the Atlantic coast.
As the storm gains steam at the end of the weekend, localized severe weather may erupt across Texas and part of the central Gulf Coast, with hail, gusty winds and renewed flooding downpours being the primary hazards.
From Sunday to Tuesday, a general 2-4 inches of rain will fall in the zone from I-10 to I-20, with local amounts of 4-8 inches possible. In much of this area, soil conditions will range from moist to saturated following prior rain events, some as recent as Thursday. Because of the wet state of the ground, not all of the rain will be absorbed, and runoff will quickly find its way into small streams and low-lying areas and then work into secondary rivers and bayous.
Those living along waterways prone to flooding should be prepared to seek higher ground. This could mean a second flooding event in northeastern Texas in less than a week. In addition to rivers in Texas that could be subject to a new surge of water, other rivers farther to the east, including the Red, Pearl, Yazoo, Tombigee, Alabama, and Chattahoochee, could be subject to flooding.
Rain early next week will be followed by yet another dose of downpours over the South Central and Southeast states from the middle to late parts of next week. A storm will push out of the southern Rockies and onto the southern Plains at midweek before it pushes eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and the Appalachians.
In areas where the new round of rain overlaps with the rain at the start of the week, flooding problems could be made even worse as there will probably be too little time between the rain rounds to allow for waters to recede.
There is the potential for some areas to receive a foot or more of rain from Sunday to Wednesday night in the South Central states and from Monday to Saturday in the Southeast region.
While some of the rain will reach areas needing moisture in central, southern and western Texas and parts of central Florida, not all of these areas may pick up enough moisture to alleviate abnormally dry to drought conditions.
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