Rapidly intensifying storms and exceptionally warm waters highlight a dynamic 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Nov. 21, 2025 - With the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season just days away on Nov. 30, AccuWeather hurricane experts say there were more major hurricanes and a higher accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) than the historical average.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measure of the intensity of a tropical system which is then aggregated for the whole season. Weak, short-lived storms produce little ACE while powerful, long-lived hurricanes generate a high amount. It is calculated by using the maximum sustained winds of a storm every 6 hours.

“This hurricane season will be remembered for brief bursts of extreme intensity in between long, quiet stretches with no tropical activity. The climatological peak of the season was remarkably quiet for the second year in a row,” AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Ocean temperatures once again surged to record-challenging levels through the peak of the season. Extremely warm waters provided ample energy for storms to rapidly intensify when atmospheric conditions were conducive for tropical development. Disruptive wind shear, dry air, Saharan dust, and other factors prevented even more storms from developing this season.”

AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is near-zero risk of tropical development in the Atlantic basin before the official end of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

“This was a feast-or-famine hurricane season. Storms either struggled to organize or suddenly exploded into extremely powerful major hurricanes,” DaSilva said.  “Warm ocean water is rarely a limiting factor in our warming climate. What really determines how active a season becomes and how fast storms intensify are the other atmospheric variables, including wind shear, dry air, Saharan dust, atmospheric stability, the strength and timing of tropical waves emerging from Africa, and large-scale patterns such as El Niño and La Niña.”

Hurricane Melissa, the final hurricane of the season in late October, was the deadliest and most destructive storm of the year. Melissa brought catastrophic wind damage, storm surge, and flooding impacts to western Jamaica and life-threatening flooding and damage across the western Caribbean.

“Many people and communities are still in need of aid after Hurricane Melissa. The strongest storm to make landfall in Jamaica’s history caused catastrophic damage. Wind gusts above 200 mph destroyed homes and businesses. Extreme rainfall saturated the soil and overwhelmed drainage systems,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

Total Damage and Economic Loss from the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

AccuWeather® experts say the total damage and economic loss from tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year is $55 billion to $61 billion, which is roughly one-eighth of last year’s catastrophic total.

In the U.S. only $7 billion to $9 billion in estimated total damage and economic loss occurred, just 2% of 2024’s devastating total of $457 billion to $506 billion.

Hurricane Melissa caused $48 billion to $52 billion in total damage and economic loss, according to a preliminary estimate from AccuWeather experts.

For comparison, six storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season caused a combined total damage and economic loss of $457 billion to $506 billion in the U.S., according to AccuWeather experts. This is a staggering difference between years of more than $400 billion, which shows the relatively small U.S. impact in 2025.

“The damage and financial losses in the U.S. this year are a small fraction compared to last year’s devastating hurricane season impacts. This was a welcome outcome for the country, especially considering that many people and businesses are still in the process of rebuilding from last year’s damage. This was a much more favorable outcome for the insurance sector, with far fewer insurance claims filed for damage,” Porter said. “The lack of storms had an economic downside for some businesses that rely on storm-related impacts. For example, Home Depot reported in its third-quarter fiscal results on Tuesday that fewer storms contributed to lower seasonal sales.”

The AccuWeather’s 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast issued in March, before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other known sources.  AccuWeather hurricane experts accurately predicted an increased risk of rapidly intensifying storms in exceptionally warm waters, as well as the potential for quiet lulls throughout the season.

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics:

• Named storms: 13

• Hurricanes: 5

• Major Hurricanes: 4

• Unnamed subtropical storm: 1

• Direct impacts on the US: 4
  (Chantal, Erin, Imelda, and the October Tropical Wind and Rainstorm)

• ACE: 132.5

AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast issued in March:

• Named storms: 13-18

• Hurricanes: 7-10

• Major Hurricanes: 3-5

• Direct impacts on the US: 3-6

• ACE: 125-175

NOAA 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast issued in May:

• Named storms: 13-19

• Hurricanes: 6-10

• Major Hurricanes: 3-5

• Direct impacts on the US: no prediction issued

The 30-year historical average for ACE is 123. AccuWeather released its seasonal forecast on March 26, nearly two months earlier than NOAA’s seasonal forecast, providing greater detail and more comprehensive information for the public.

AccuWeather is the only known source to define what constitutes a direct U.S. impact, while other sources consider only landfalling storms. A direct U.S. impact occurs when at least one of the following criteria is met:

• The center of a tropical system passes within 60 miles of a U.S. coastline.

• Tropical storm-force wind gusts are observed on land.

• Flooding occurs as a result of the tropical system.

• At least 2 feet of storm surge occurs.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are constantly refining and integrating new data into our predictions. Following the unusual lull in tropical activity during the climatological peak of the hurricane season, AccuWeather lowered the maximum range of named storms forecast from 18 to 16 in September. AccuWeather was the first known source to make this adjustment.

AccuWeather hurricane experts accurately predicted that the Carolinas faced a higher risk of direct impacts this hurricane season, compared to the historical average.

Tropical Storm Chantal brought flooding to South Carolina and North Carolina in July.

• A Tropical Wind and Rainstorm caused significant beach erosion, prolonged coastal flooding and property damage from the Carolinas to the Jersey Shore.

• Hurricanes Erin, Humberto, and Imelda stayed well offshore, but also brought rough surf and erosion issues to some beaches across the Carolinas.

• More than a dozen beach homes collapsed in the Outer Banks this year during rough surf, beach erosion, and stormy conditions.

Despite exceptionally warm waters and three storms that underwent “extreme rapid intensification” before exploding into Category 5 hurricanes, the U.S. was able to avoid a hurricane landfall for the first time in 10 years.

Extreme rapid intensification happens when the maximum sustained winds in a storm increase by 58 mph or more in 24 hours.

“Every hurricane season is unique, but the overall frequency and intensity of storms in the Atlantic basin may be evolving,” Porter said. “In a warming world, there are indications that there can be fewer storms overall, but those that do develop can be more likely to intensify rapidly. This could lead to more seasons marked by extended stretches with no tropical activity, separated by short bursts with powerful hurricanes, similar to what has happened in the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons.”

AccuWeather hurricane experts say people and businesses should not become complacent after the first season without a U.S. hurricane landfall in 10 years.

“There is an alarming trend of storms rapidly intensifying into major hurricanes when atmospheric ingredients align. Erin and Melissa both exploded from tropical storms into Category 5 hurricanes in less than 48 hours. The threat of hurricanes rapidly intensify near coastal cities is a growing risk for the U.S. and the entire Atlantic basin,” DaSilva warned.

The five reasons why most storms curved away from America this year

AccuWeather hurricane experts say a combination of factors and timing — including a rare interaction between two storms — prevented more storms from reaching the U.S. coastline this season.

“The Southeast U.S. was spared from major flooding from Hurricane Imelda back in September, thanks in part to the rare Fujiwhara Effect. When storms move within 850 miles of each other, they can essentially start to swirl or dance around each other. This phenomenon is named after Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara,” DaSilva said.

“Hurricane Humberto passed within 500 miles of Imelda and helped to pull the smaller storm away from the U.S. coast and out to sea. If it weren’t for Humberto and the Fujiwhara Effect, Imelda could have stalled near the Southeast coast or made landfall,” DaSilva said. “There were several scenarios that could have brought catastrophic flash flooding to the Southeast, even reaching parts of the southern Appalachians that were devastated by Helene last year. Without that rare interaction, we likely would have had a flooding disaster on our hands.”

The Bermuda High — an area of high pressure that typically forms over the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda during summer — was another critical factor.

“The Bermuda High, which often steers storms toward the U.S., was generally weaker and positioned a bit farther east. That allowed storms to curve around its western edge and head out to sea instead of toward the U.S. coastline,” DaSilva explained.

“If the Bermuda High had been stronger or positioned slightly farther west, more storms could have made landfall in the U.S. this year. Timing also played a significant role,” DaSilva explained. “Big dips in the jet stream and cold fronts moving across the eastern U.S. prevented storms like Erin, Humberto and Imelda from getting closer to our coast or making landfall.”

Additionally, disruptive wind shear, dry air, Saharan dust and increased atmospheric stability also limited tropical development in the Atlantic main development region during the climatological peak of the season. This was the second straight year with an unusual lull in tropical development in late-September and over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Key Takeaways from the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

• 2025 is only the second season on record, dating back to 1851, to produce three or more Category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or more. The record is held by the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season with four Category 5 storms.
   

• Hurricane Melissa shattered records as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica’s history. The island’s first direct hit from a Category 5 storm on record was one of the all-time strongest landfalls ever documented in the Atlantic basin in terms of wind speed (185 mph) and barometric pressure (892  mb or 26.34 inches). The central pressure in Hurricane Melissa was roughly equivalent to the average atmospheric pressure found at the top of a 3,500-foot mountain.AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Melissa at $48 billion to $52 billion.
   

• Hurricanes Erin, Humberto and Melissa all underwent extreme rapid intensification before exploding into Category 5 hurricanes this season. Extreme rapid intensification happens when a storm’s maximum sustained wind speeds increase by 58 mph or more in 24 hours.
   

• Ocean Heat Content in the main development region of the Atlantic and the Caribbean, this year ranked third highest on record, behind 2023 and 2024. Unusually warm waters at the surface and hundreds of feet deep provided extra energy for storms to rapidly intensify.
   

• The rare Fujiwhara Effect between Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda is credited for helping to pull Imelda away from the Southeast U.S., likely averting a flooding disaster for the region. There are only a handful of other cases of the Fujiwhara Effect documented with clear evidence in the Atlantic basin in recent years, including the interaction between hurricanes Matthew and Nicole in 2016.

• Beach Erosion has been a major challenge along the Atlantic coastline this season, despite no U.S. hurricane landfalls. Hurricanes Erin, Imelda, Humberto and Gabrielle, brought rough surf and rip currents to much of the East Coast, despite remaining hundreds of miles offshore. Roughly two dozen homes in the Outer Banks of North Carolina have collapsed in rough surf since September.

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