2026-2027 United States Winter Forecast
A potentially historic El Niño is expected to shape this winter, increasing flooding risks across parts of the West and South while favoring warmer, less snowy conditions across much of the northern U.S. Heavy mountain snow in the West could help water supplies, while significant winter storms can still occur in areas forecast to receive less seasonal snowfall overall.
Strong El Niño Shapes the Winter Outlook
A very strong El Niño may reach historic levels in December or January and will be a major influence through winter and into early spring 2027. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say it has the potential to be the strongest El Niño since 1950, favoring an active southern storm track and warmer conditions across much of the northern United States.
- A stronger southern jet stream favors frequent storms from California across the southern Plains, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic
- Warm Pacific waters near Mexico and south and east of Hawaii could shift the West Coast storm track farther north, reducing precipitation in the Southwest
- The 2015-2016 El Niño winter offers a reminder that even a very strong El Niño does not guarantee the same regional impacts as a northerly shift in the jet stream robbed the southwest of its usual El Niño winter moisture
“The intensity of the El Niño that is coming on, a very strong, near-record or record El Niño, builds the confidence that we should see a lot more moisture in the southern tier of the nation, unlike what we saw last year and other years prior to that.”
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
Winter Snow Forecast
Snowfall is expected to run below to well below average across much of the Northwest, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The city forecasts show substantially less snow than last winter in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago, while Denver and Salt Lake City are forecast to rebound from last year’s lower snowfall. Warmer conditions may cause some eastern storms to bring rain or mixed precipitation, but significant snowstorms remain possible.
- A storm track from the Southwest into the central Plains could bring more snow, sleet, and ice from Kansas into central Iowa, especially in January and February when cold air is most prevalent
- The southern Appalachians, interior northern Gulf states, and northern portions of the Northeast have greater potential for near-to-above average snowfall
- Late January and February offer opportunities for major eastern storms; if blocking near Greenland occurs, and cold air becomes available, that can increase the snowfall chances in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic
- New York and Philadelphia are forecast to have fewer days with measurable snow this winter, but the number of more substantial snow events could still be near the historical average. For some, it only takes one big snow event to reach near average snowfall for the season
- Warmer periods and less frequent snow could lead to inconsistent ski conditions in the upper Midwest and Northeast
“While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities. So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February.”
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
West Coast Atmospheric Rivers Bring Flooding Risks
Several atmospheric rivers could bring repeated rounds of heavy rain and intense mountain snow to the West Coast, with central and southern California among the areas of concern. More powerful storms may also produce high winds and coastal flooding. The location and persistence of the storm track will determine which specific communities face the greatest impacts.
- Repeated downpours can increase flooding and landslide risks as the season progresses
- Mountain snowfall could disrupt travel through California
- A northward shift in the storm track could bring more precipitation to the Northwest and less to California and the Southwest
“When we look at the water temperatures out over the Pacific, the setup is very good for a subtropical jet stream pattern that sets up heading right toward central California. California is right now at risk of seeing some massive flooding if that all comes to fruition.”
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
Western Mountain Snow Offers Water Supply Relief and White Christmas Chances
An early start to the mountain snow season is expected from the Sierra Nevada through the Great Basin and central and southern Rockies. Frequent storms continuing into early spring could build high-elevation snowpack and support spring and summer runoff into the Colorado River Basin, where depleted water supplies and the need to replenish rivers and reservoirs remain a major concern.
- California and the central and southern Rockies are favored for frequent fresh snow and favorable ski conditions. Denver is forecast to have 10-18 days with at least 2 inches of snow, compared with a historical average of 9
- Western mountain communities may have a better chance of a white Christmas than many cities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, where sustained cold and favorable timing may be harder to come by early in the winter
- Improved snowpack over the interior West could help rivers and reservoirs, although the amount of relief will depend on storm tracks and how the snowpack develops through the season
“The main focus is the interior Southwest, especially the Colorado Basin, which desperately needs more snowpack in the mountains this year. That will replenish the rivers and the reservoirs as we get into the spring and summer. Everything points in that direction.”
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
Eastern U.S. Faces River and Coastal Flooding Risks
An active southern storm track is forecast to bring persistent wet conditions from the southern Plains through the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Repeated rainfall could raise river levels substantially by late winter, while some storms may produce severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Along the East Coast, strong coastal storms during late winter could increase the risk of coastal flooding and erosion.
- River flooding could become an increasing concern as winter progresses, particularly across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, where river levels could rise after starting the season below average
- Rivers may also rise sharply across parts of the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The September outlook lists seasonal precipitation at 135% of average in Atlanta, 130% in Houston and Washington, D.C., and 115% in Memphis
- The lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys face uncertainty over rain, ice, and mixed precipitation as storm tracks shift during midwinter
“Farther east, river levels right now are actually running lower than average in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee area. Those places are starting to get some precipitation. That could flip.”
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
Northern U.S. Warmth Could Lower Heating Demand
Above-average temperatures and fewer Arctic outbreaks are forecast across much of the northern United States. AccuWeather’s outlook puts winter temperatures 3-4 degrees above average in Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis. Forecast heating degree days for October 2026 through March 2027 are below historical averages in several northern cities, indicating lower weather-driven heating demand. Comparisons with last winter vary by location.
- Drier, warmer-than-average conditions are expected across much of the northern U.S., particularly the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley, while the Northeast can still receive rain and mixed precipitation storms
- Heating demand is forecast to be lower than last winter in cities such as New York and Chicago, reflecting fewer periods of sustained cold
- Some areas, including Kansas City and Salt Lake City, are forecast to have greater heating demand than last winter
- Lower heating demand does not necessarily mean lower energy bills, as that also depends on energy prices and household use
"The northern tier escapes a lot of that action, so they do not see as much precipitation. They see less snowfall, and temperatures, by default, end up being warmer than average."
— Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert
