What's next in the Atlantic following Helene?
As Isaac and Joyce roam in the open Atlantic, a new named tropical storm may form much closer to the United States during the first days of October, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn.
The AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite on Saturday afternoon shows Hurricane Isaac (top right), Tropical Storm Joyce (bottom right) and the mass of clouds associated with what is left of Helene after it combined with a non-tropical weather feature over the eastern United States (top left).
The breeding grounds of Helene may spawn a new named tropical storm during the first days of October, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn.
"The Central American gyre is very active at the moment, and there is the potential for one or more systems to develop from this broad circulation through the first days of October," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
Within this tropical gyre, the air is not only rotating counterclockwise, but it is also rising. Rising air generates clouds, showers and thunderstorms, which can then organize into a tropical depression or storm under the right conditions.
AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is a medium chance for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche during the first days of October. Should any tropical feature attempt to organize in these waters, a general westward path is expected toward Mexico around the middle of next week.
Meanwhile, a high risk for tropical development is being highlighted to the east of there this week. Helene's beginning was in a similar zone of the southwestern Caribbean, in the water south of Cuba and west of Jamaica.
According to AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin, an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of the week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west in the Gulf of Mexico when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin stated.
All interests from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to the latest developments in the tropical Atlantic given the potential for one or more storms to form in the coming days.
An uptick in tropical downpours and rough seas is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern coast of Mexico later this week regardless of tropical development. Heavy rain, gusty winds and dangerous seas would extend toward part of the Gulf Coast should a brewing storm jog to the north.
The same Central American gyre may also spawn tropical development in the eastern Pacific Ocean in early October. Any additional development in the East Pacific may be near where John pestered southwestern Mexico and flooded the region for days after becoming a "zombie" storm.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce will roam through open waters into next week, posing a risk to shipping interests only.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 10 named storms and six hurricanes thus far, with two months left to go before its official end.
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