Tropics could spring to life at end of May near southeastern US
A tropical area of interest may develop and track near Florida, bringing the risk of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf, perhaps just ahead of the June 1 start of hurricane season.
Hurricane season is about to kick off in the Atlantic, but what are the chances of a tropical storm right at the start this year?
A tropical area of interest may develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf and track toward the waters along the eastern Gulf and the southern Atlantic coast of the United States from the final weekend of May into early June.
Should a storm evolve, it could add to and extend existing rain in parts of the Southeast that will occur regardless during this week.
"Rain will fall across parts of the south-central and southeastern United States this week regardless of whether tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean, southern Gulf or southwestern Atlantic," AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "However, any tropical system that organizes in that zone could strengthen modestly, increase winds and surf and produce locally heavy rain across parts of the Florida Peninsula near the end of the month."
In terms of probability, it is more likely that a tropical rainstorm may form as opposed to a named tropical system.
"There is a possibility that, if a rainstorm forms farther to the west, near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, it could end up farther north in the Gulf and head toward the northern or western Gulf Coast of Florida," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Where rain extends outward from any evolving storm, it could further ease drought in parts of the region, following a wet week for many locations.
Water temperatures across much of the region are above historical averages and high enough to support tropical development. Generally, water temperatures near 80 degrees Fahrenheit or higher can fuel tropical storm formation.
Outside the United States, periods of heavier rain and gusty winds may develop from parts of Cuba and the Bahamas to Bermuda from late this week into early next week.
Residents and visitors from the central and eastern Gulf to the southwest Atlantic and northwest Caribbean planning beach trips, fishing excursions or cruises during that time should monitor the situation for any development where locally heavy, gusty squalls and rough seas could evolve.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, though tropical storms occasionally form before that date. No tropical storms have formed so far in 2026.
A forecast strong El Niño — a warming of waters in the tropical Pacific that can alter weather patterns around the globe — may suppress Atlantic tropical activity this year, but that does not eliminate the risk of impacts in the United States or the Caribbean.
However, El Niño and its full effects on the tropics may not fully develop until later this summer and autumn.
AccuWeather's team of meteorologists is forecasting 11-16 named storms in 2026, including three to five direct impacts to the United States.
Meanwhile, "in the eastern Pacific, we see a potential for one to two tropical storms to form during the first ten days of June," DaSilva said.
"The second of those, perhaps during the second week of June, could form just off the coast of Central America, turn northward and be of concern for the west coast of Mexico, should it develop," DaSilva added.
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