Will 2026 go down with no Atlantic hurricanes?
There is a risk of tropical development near the Southeast Coast around midmonth, but the overall tropical Atlantic activity is forecast to be minimal in the weeks ahead and the basin may struggle to produce a hurricane.
The Atlantic Basin isn’t just “quiet,” it is “record quiet”—at least for the Satellite Era, which began in 1966.
Thursday marked the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but a strengthening El Niño may limit opportunities for tropical storms to become hurricanes, potentially setting the stage for a historic season.
To date, there have only been five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. By the middle of September, the historical average is nine tropical storms and four hurricanes.
Thus far, there have been no hurricanes. Bertha and Edouard were the strongest tropical storms with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Even at that level, winds were well short of the minimum 74 mph criteria needed to reach hurricane status.
Given the strong and still-strengthening El Niño, which tends to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin while boosting numbers in the Pacific, there is some chance that this season could end on Nov. 30 with no hurricanes.
El Niño promotes disruptive winds, known as wind shear, across the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Wind shear usually disrupts the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes, which is one of the key reasons this season has been slower than the historical average in terms of tropical activity.
"There have been no years during the satellite era that began in the early 1960s during which there have been no hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "There was a stretch in 1994 where there were no hurricanes at all in September and October, but there was a hurricane prior to September, and November brought two hurricanes that year."
In years with late-starting hurricanes, a record is forecast to be set this year. If a hurricane forms this season, it would now break the satellite-era record shared during the 2002 and 2013 seasons.
Looking back before the 1960s yields a milestone from 1941.
"In the National Hurricane Center's original report, a storm achieved hurricane status on Sept. 19, 1941, which was the first of the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Digital Media Producer Jesse Ferrell said. "However, reanalysis later determined that it didn't reach hurricane strength until Sept. 21. So if we reach that date this year with no hurricanes, we'll break that record as well."
Back then, storms were just assigned numbers. In 1941, two storms were active at the same time, but Storm Three became a hurricane before Storm Two. The year was part of a prolonged El Niño event that spanned 1940 to 1942, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Physical Sciences Laboratory.
Given the potentially record-setting El Niño conditions and the wind shear generated by it, it is possible for there to be no hurricanes through the remainder of the season. This premise has to be entertained, even though statistically, the odds are that there will be one or more hurricanes during the second half of the season.
Conditions will be evaluated over the basin through the remainder of the season. For now, AccuWeather's team of meteorologists expects between eight and 11 named storms, with three or four becoming hurricanes.
There have been only two years on record, prior to weather satellites, with no hurricanes at all. These are 1914 and 1907. In 1914, which was an El Niño year, only one tropical storm was observed during the entire season. That storm struck Florida and Georgia with minimal impacts. In 1907, which was a neutral, non-El Niño/non-La Niña year, no tropical storms or hurricanes were observed. While these data are deemed reliable, it is possible that a hurricane or tropical storm slipped past ships, islands and major landmasses and went undetected.
The test may come later this month.
"If there is going to be an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic for the balance of the season, it is likely to be during late September to early October," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
"There is still likely to be some dust, dry air and higher-than-average shear in the Caribbean, so likely these storms would have to form off tropical waves near the Bahamas or farther to the north and east," Pastelok added. "Another area would be in the northeast Gulf, which is not very common this time of year."
Beyond that, respecting that the season continues through November, there is always the possibility of a mid-ocean storm from Bermuda to the Azores late in the season, even as conditions become more hostile for tropical development in the MDR to the south and areas near the Caribbean and Central and North America.
This satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Melissa as a Category 5, 190-mph hurricane just before landfall in Jamaica, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025. (NOAA via AP)
With considerable time left for the 2026 Atlantic season, it is still a bit too early to declare a hurricane-free year for the basin, as conditions could become favorable long enough for a storm with winds of at least 74 mph to form. Still, a hurricane-free season remains plausible, with minimal signs of activity as the historically most active part of the season reaches its peak.
AccuWeather meteorologists are watching an area in the coastal waters of the southeastern United States for possible development next week. Another area southeast of Bermuda is under scrutiny.
The development risk for both areas is low at this time.
Much of this same zone could be the trouble spot for the entire second half of September.
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