Tropical Depression Moke to sideswipe Hawaii's Big Island with heavy rain, renewed flood risk
Moke will travel close enough to Hawaii to bring enough rain to cause flash flooding on the Big Island learly this week.
Treyton Calantoc explains what it was like as floodwaters surged through his neighborhood, forcing him and his brother to go to the aid of their grandma.
Hawaii is facing another close call from the tropics just one week after Hurricane Lala passed near the Big Island. Once a tropical storm and now a tropical depression as of Sunday night, Moke is expected to continue to track well south of the island chain early this week, but will still have significant impacts.
"Moke is tracking much farther south than Lala did," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "However, Moke is a larger storm with showers and thunderstorms currently extending hundreds of miles from the center of low pressure."
As of late Sunday evening HST, Tropical Depression Moke was about 420 miles southwest of Honolulu. The storm was moving to the west at 13 mph.
"Even though Moke is tracking well south of the Hawaiian Islands, a tropical plume of moisture trailing the depression will bring locally heavy rain to the Big Island on Monday and Monday night. "This heavy rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides, specifically in higher terrain and across areas that received significant flooding from Lala."
The storm has been rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Hawaii, largely because of the risks from flash flooding and mudslides on the Big Island.
Tropical Storm Moke in the Pacific Ocean on Sunday, August 23, 2026. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
It would not take much rain to lead to flash flooding, mudslides and washouts. Despite the forecast of somewhat less intense rain with Moke than with Lala, the ground is still saturated, and some hillsides remain unstable. Some infrastructure, such as roads and drainage systems, remain damaged or clogged with debris.
With Moke, a general 4-8 inches of rain is forecast to fall on the Big Island, with local amounts between 8 and 12 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 24 inches.
Hilo may receive between 2 and 6 inches of rain from Moke. A general 1-2 inches of rain is forecast to fall over much of the higher terrain of the Hawaiian Islands.
"High pressure to the northeast of Hawaii will strengthen a bit, and that will send some dry air southwestward," DaSilva said. "That high pressure area is being strengthened by interaction with Lala to the west. The dry air should prevent widespread excessive rainfall on the northern portion of the Big Island and throughout the balance of the island chain."
From Aug. 14-17, Hilo received nearly 15 inches of rain associated with Lala, which was nearly 1.5 times their entire historical average rainfall for all of August.
Parts of the Big Island received between 2 and 3 feet of rain with Lala and a maximum observed rainfall of 43.55 inches. Damage from Lala was extensive on the Big Island, with pockets of power outages and pockets of rain- and wind-related damage scattered throughout the island.
Since the center of Moke is forecast to pass to the south of the Big Island, the strongest wind gusts would likely occur in spiral bands or squalls.
Some gusts on the Big Island, mainly over higher terrain, will reach between 40 and 60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 85 mph.
Although Moke will pass well south of the island chain, swells propagating outward from the center will lead to large breakers on the southeast and southern sides of the islands.
Dangerous surf conditions with strong rip currents are in store, with some overwash that will lead to coastal flooding.
Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, there are multiple areas of interest.
While none of these pose a threat to Hawaii, swells generated will propagate outward hundreds of miles and pose a threat to shipping and fishing interests. Breakers may be hazardous for swimmers along the coast of Mexico and farther north to Southern California this week.
AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.
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