Tropical Depression 9 forms in Gulf, to become Atlantic's first hurricane before striking US
Newly-formed Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to strengthen into the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season and bring flooding rain and high winds to the U.S. central Gulf Coast this weekend.
The storm expected to become Hurricane Isaias, the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the year in modern history, could cause serious flooding problems.
Tropical Depression Nine is forecast by AccuWeather to track northeastward and quickly ramp up to a tropical storm before peaking as a hurricane while over the central Gulf. Landfall along the central Gulf Coast is expected this weekend.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is Isaias.
AccuWeather meteorologists say this will become the first hurricane of the 2026 season, the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in over 100 years.
Waters in the Gulf are well into the 80s F, which will provide plenty of fuel and help the depression organize into a tropical storm on Wednesday. It is forecast to strengthen further as it tracks directly toward the Gulf Coast of the United States.
"The only inhibiting factor will be varying amounts of wind shear," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Wind shear tends to disrupt the circulation of tropical storms and hurricanes, which can prevent them from strengthening and even cause them to lose intensity.
It is currently predicted to be a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday night or early Saturday morning.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is less than one for Mexico. This scale rates the storm in terms of flooding, wind damage, risk to lives, property and commerce. The RealImpact rating for the U.S. is a two.
"Our forecast track has the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening," DaSilva said.
The combination of a dip in the jet stream approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley and the circulation around the backside of high pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast will first pull the storm northward and onshore along the central Gulf Coast.
As the storm organizes and quickly strengthens over the central Gulf, winds will increase and seas will build near the center. Swells will propagate outward, posing dangers to small craft. As the swells reach coastal waters, frequent and strong rip currents will develop on many beaches along the Gulf Coast, particularly on the north-central and northeastern Gulf beaches.
As the storm closes in on the north-central Gulf Coast, squally winds and rain will increase. As the storm makes landfall this weekend, most likely somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the western part of the Florida Panhandle, rains will become heavier and steadier near and north of the center and will expand inland on a north-northeasterly trajectory.
The most substantial impact from the brewing storm will be from heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding, especially in areas where the ground remains saturated from drenching rain in the past week.
A broad area of 1-4 inches of rain is forecast in the southeastern United States with bands of 4-8 and 8-12 inches of rain close to and just east of where the center tracks. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for this storm is 25 inches.
The worst of the wind damage and coastal storm surge flooding are expected near and just east of where it makes landfall.
Based on the storm becoming a hurricane prior to landfall, wind gusts of 100-120 mph are forecast near and just east of the center. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 120 mph. A broader zone with tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will extend outward in the Southeast states, especially near the central Gulf Coast and into Tenneessee.
"Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "The bulk of the severe weather is likely near and east of the center, but that risk can extend for hundreds of miles to the east this weekend."
The jet stream and high pressure circulation will steer the storm over the interior Southeast states and perhaps as far north as the Ohio Valley late this weekend.
From there, the storm is likely to turn eastward and cut across the Appalachians and then off the mid-Atlantic coast by early next week. By then, as a tropical rainstorm, drenching downpours can lead to localized flash flooding, especially in steep terrain and in areas where the ground is saturated.
There is a chance that wind shear increases so much along the path early on that the storm falls short of becoming a hurricane. The only other years with no reported hurricanes were well before weather satellites existed -- in 1907 and 1914. However, it is possible that during this era, hurricanes existed but avoided land or ships during peak intensity.
Within a day or two after this storm makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, Rachel, in the eastern Pacific, may bring flooding rain and drought relief to parts of the Western states.
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