Time may be running out for tropical storms in Gulf, Atlantic for rest of June

Forecasters see few reasons for tropical development in the Atlantic through late June, but moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina in the Pacific could provide a short-lived opportunity in the Gulf.

Conditions are becoming less supportive for tropical development in the Atlantic basin, but one final opportunity for development this month may emerge in the southwest Gulf, depending in part on the future of Cristina near Central America.

Meteorologists identified low-risk areas of potential development in the southwestern part of the Atlantic basin over the past couple of weeks, particularly over the Gulf, that ultimately did not lead to the first storm of the season. While that region is climatologically favored for tropical activity in June, several ingredients must come together for development to occur, including a well-defined area of low pressure.

Sea surface temperatures remain sufficiently high across much of the region, generally above the 80-degree Fahrenheit threshold needed to support tropical development.

Early in June, a front stalled in the region, but there was no organized area of low pressure along that front. Wind shear also persisted across the region during much of June so far, disrupting the organization needed for a tropical depression to form.

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The only nearby source of tropical low pressure currently lies outside the Atlantic basin.

"The best chance, while still low, would come from the eastern Pacific," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "As Cristina moves inland and wrings out drenching rain on Central America, some of its energy and circulation may survive and reach the southwestern part of the Gulf around this weekend."

Such crossover events are rare with fewer than two dozen storms known to have crossed between the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins since records began in the mid-1800s. The rugged mountains of Central America typically weaken tropical systems quickly as they lose organization and dump much of their moisture over land.

AccuWeather's team of meteorologists have assigned the southwestern Gulf a low risk of development for June 13-14.

Historically, more storms have maintained a circulation while crossing from the Atlantic into the Pacific than in the opposite direction. This is due to the persistent northeast trade winds. Masses of moisture moving from one basin to another without circulation generally do not count as a crossover storm.

It is possible that some of the remaining moisture from Cristina may join the moisture in the Gulf. From there, the extra moisture could drift into Texas or spread east along the Gulf Coast in the form of tropical downpours. A humid weather pattern will fuel drenching downpours, regardless of tropical activity in the Southeast states for the first part of next week.

Meanwhile, wind shear will continue to act as a deterrent for tropical development in the Gulf and Caribbean through the week.

"Beyond this weekend and through the second half of June, tropical waves emerging from Africa are expected to remain suppressed well to the south, while storm systems associated with severe weather will track well north of the Gulf. As a result, there aren't many signals favoring tropical development," DaSilva said.

Periodic wind shear, along with surges of dry air and Saharan dust moving westward from Africa, is likely to continue to suppress tropical development across much of the Atlantic basin for the last two weeks of June.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The peak of the hurricane season is many weeks away, in mid-September.

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