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Time is running out for tropical development near Philippines

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Apr 30, 2020 6:36 PM EDT

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This slow-motion video shows an incredible lightning display in the skies above Erbil, Iraq, on April 29.

A tropical low still has time to develop before ushering flooding downpours and gusty winds across the southern Philippines.

AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring a broad area of low pressure that is increasing shower and thunderstorm activity in the southern Philippine Sea.

There is a small window for this low to develop into a tropical system as it is currently located over warm water and in an area of low wind shear.

"This low will track generally westward through the weekend and has a slight chance to develop into a tropical depression," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

However, the window for development will be small as the low is quickly approaching the southern Philippines into early Saturday.

Whether or not tropical development occurs, this system will still bring rounds of tropical downpours to the southern Philippines through the weekend.

The heaviest rain is forecast to fall near where the center of the low tracks.

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"Widespread rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) are expected across the island of Mindanao," stated Zartman.

Along the eastern coast of the island, rainfall totals will climb to 100-200 mm (4-8 inches).

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 250 mm (10 inches) will be possible in the higher elevations in this area.

"This amount of rain will raise the risk of flooding, mudslides, transportation disruptions and road closures," Zartman warned.

The storm is not expected to become strong enough to produce widespread damaging winds, but thunderstorms will still be able to produce some potent gusts.

Related:

Philippines Weather Homepage
AccuWeather Tropical Headquarters
AccuWeather’s 2020 Asia spring and tropical forecast

Into early next week, the area of low pressure will continue to drift west into the South China Sea. While no tropical development is expected, this disturbance can increase shower and thunderstorm activity in Vietnam by the middle of the week.

Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger over the southern Philippines even after the low moves away.

The West Pacific typhoon season runs throughout the year, but most storms develop between the months of May and October.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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