Supercharged September: Atlantic hurricane season to intensify dramatically
As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its peak, AccuWeather meteorologists warn of a dramatic surge in tropical storms and hurricanes, potentially rivaling the record-breaking activity of 2020.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter joined Bernie Rayno live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 22 to discuss what’s expected for the hurricane season in September.
A surge of hurricanes and tropical storms will shatter the silence across the Atlantic Ocean less than three weeks before the peak of hurricane season.
Dry, dusty air kept most tropical activity across the Atlantic at bay throughout most of August, with Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto being the two exceptions. However, a major shift in the weather pattern will soon blow the doors wide open for a frenzy of tropical activity to unfold.
"I think things could get very active potentially very quickly here as soon as that dry air goes away," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "We could see a parade of storms." This dramatic increase in activity will start at the end of August and persist throughout September.
September hurricane forecast
Between six and 10 tropical systems are predicted for September, according to AccuWeather meteorologists, a similar to the pace of the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season which had 10 September storms.
"There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day," DaSilva added.
This enhanced satellite image made available by NOAA shows Tropical Storm Florence, upper left, in the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2018 at 3:30 p.m. EDT. At center is Tropical Storm Isaac and at right is Hurricane Helene. (NOAA via AP)
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, but an abundance of warm water could fuel plenty of tropical storms and hurricanes heading into autumn. "We're basically at record-breaking sea surface temperatures across most of the basin," DaSilva said.
Not only will October remain busy, but there could be one to three more storms in November.
Areas of the US with highest risk of landfall
"I'm still very concerned about the Texas coast," DaSilva said. Florida and the Carolinas are also at an elevated risk of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. However, the danger will extend far beyond where a storm makes landfall.
Hurricane Beryl slammed into Texas as a Category 1 hurricane but went on to become a prolific tornado-producing storm as it tracked over the eastern United States and ultimately triggered significant flooding in Vermont. This happened several days after and more than 1,000 miles away from where it made landfall.
The circles along the U.S. coast show where AccuWeather meteorologists have highlighted an increased risk of landfall in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Three landfalls have already occurred in these areas.
"It’s been an already been a costly year for hurricane damage and impacts, and we haven’t even reached the peak of the season," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
AccuWeather is predicting a total of 20 to 25 named storms across the Atlantic basin by the end of 2024, well above the historical average of 14.
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