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Somalia to stay on high alert for another tropical threat in wake of Pawan

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Aug 7, 2020 2:38 PM EDT

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Tropical Cyclone Pawan is seen approaching Somalia on Friday, Dec. 6, 2019. (Image/CIRA RAAMB)

As Pawan continues to move inland over the region, residents in eastern Africa should remain on alert for more tropical impacts into the beginning of the week.

A tropical low traveling through the Indian Ocean will continue to migrate northwestward throughout the weekend.

"Into early Monday, the tropical low will go through an area of the Indian Ocean where conditions will be favorable for a more organized storm to develop," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.

The combination of warm waters and low wind shear will increase the chances of it developing.

If this tropical low is able to hold together, it may pose a threat to Socotra Island or Somalia next week.

This satellite image shows the area of thunderstorms over the Indian Ocean early Saturday night as well as Pawan over Somalia. (Photo/RAMMB)

"Following the rainfall that will inundate Somalia through the weekend, another dose of heavy rain could lead to more widespread flooding should the same area get hit twice in a matter of days," Spamer added.

Should this low become strong enough to become a cyclonic storm, it would gain the name Amphan.

A more organized storm could also lead to locally strong wind gusts near the center of the storm.

Related:

India Weather Center
Interactive Indian Ocean weather satellite
AccuWeather's 2019-2020 Asia winter forecast

A flurry of activity began on Monday as a depression took shape east of Somalia and continued to strengthen through midweek, allowing the depression to be named Pawan as it developed into a tropical cyclone.

Pawan made landfall along the coast of Somalia just south of Eyl with winds equal to a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean (62-117 km/h or 39-73 mph) on Saturday morning, local time.

Interaction with land has caused Pawan to weaken to a deep depression on Friday. By Saturday, Pawan weakened to a well-marked area of low pressure.

Even with Pawan weakening, intense rainfall will continue through Saturday.

A satellite view of Pawan after making landfall in Somalia on Saturday morning, local time.

Periods of heavy rainfall was still occurring across the region on Saturday as the storm continued to push inland.

Rainfall totals reached 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) across much of the area and increased the risk for flooding and mudslides in northern and central Somalia.

Some fatalities have been reported due to the heavy rain and strong winds in northern Somalia, according to Morad News. There were also reports of two vehicles swept away by flood waters and boats capsized in rough seas.

The threat of flooding will extend to eastern parts of Somalia's neighboring country, Ethiopia, through Sunday.

The southern Indian Ocean is also in a period of increased tropical activity as tropical systems Ambali and Belna formed on Thursday north and east of Madagascar.

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