High risk of tropical development over Atlantic just one area being watched
A new tropical storm or tropical depression could soon form over the Atlantic hurricane basin, just one of three areas being monitored for development.
Though there haven’t been any hurricanes in the Atlantic yet in the 2026 hurricane season, that doesn’t mean the threat has passed.
The silence across the Atlantic hurricane basin may soon end due to a high risk of a new tropical storm or depression forming, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. This comes after weeks without a tropical storm, largely in part due to the widespread disruptive winds and dry air linked to El Niño.
This could be the precursor for an uptick in tropical activity later this month and into early October.
A high risk for development near the Azores
On Friday morning, AccuWeather tropical experts issued a high risk of tropical development not far to the southwest of the Azores in the northern Atlantic, where a loosely organized area of showers and storms was being tracked on satellite.
"A tropical or depression storm could form as early as late Friday or Friday night," said AccuWeather AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "As of now, it looks like there will not be any direct impact to the Azores, however."
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2026 Atlantic season is Fay.
The area of potential development was just one of three areas being monitored across the basin for development over the next week or so.
Non-tropical storm to move into the Gulf
"A disorganized storm just east of Florida is predicted to spin westward, reaching the Gulf later this week," said DaSilva. The storm will enhance showers and thunderstorms across Florida as it moves westward.
This wide image of the tropical Atlantic was captured on Thursday morning, Sept. 17, 2026, and shows a lack of organized storms. There is some poorly organized activity near Bermuda (near center) and east of Florida (left of center). AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite.
It could evolve into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm into the weekend.
"Factoring in the time and conditions expected, we believe that potential to be low at this time," DaSilva said.
Waters from Florida to western Cuba bear watching next week
Looking farther ahead, broad low pressure and tropical moisture may gather from north of the Bahamas to the eastern Gulf and southward into the northwestern Caribbean from late September into early October.
"This area in the southwestern part of the Atlantic basin is probably going to be the zone to watch for a couple of weeks at least," DaSilva said. Wind shear may be lower there than across much of the rest of the Atlantic basin, potentially making conditions more favorable for tropical development.
At the very least, part of the zone is likely to be strewn with rounds of drenching downpours and gusty thunderstorms.
AccuWeather lowers hurricane forecast as El Niño persists
El Niño, which typically promotes tropical activity in the Pacific while suppressing it in the Atlantic, remains the driving factor behind this year’s hurricane season.
Because wind shear and dry air have persisted across the Main Development Region, or MDR, and much of the rest of the Atlantic, and are likely to continue, AccuWeather meteorologists have lowered their forecast to one to three hurricanes for the season.
Of those hurricanes, one or two are forecast to become major hurricanes, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
AccuWeather’s forecast for three to five direct impacts in the United States remains unchanged. Three storms—Arthur, Bertha and Edouard—have already directly affected the country, and all three originated in the Gulf.
Cristobal was a short-lived, open-ocean tropical storm that formed and dissipated west of the Azores.
Dolly was the only tropical storm to form in and track across the MDR before moving through the northern Caribbean islands, where it brought mostly beneficial rainfall.
Edouard was the last tropical storm. There have been no tropical storms for about two weeks now.
None of this season’s five named storms has become a hurricane. With the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season now past, it is possible that the entire season will pass without a hurricane.
If no hurricanes form during the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic season, this would be the first hurricane-free season of the satellite era, which began in the mid-1960s.
Only two Atlantic hurricane seasons on record produced no hurricanes: 1907 and 1914.
However, much of the second half of the season remains, and hurricanes can still develop over the open Atlantic from Bermuda to the Azores well into November. Therefore, AccuWeather’s forecast of one to three hurricanes remains possible even if none develop near Central or North America in the next few weeks.
Hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
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