Dolly to drench northern Caribbean, raise flood risk

Dolly will bring drought-relieving rain to parts of the northern Caribbean, but downpours could trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The storm could wander close to the United States later this week.

Dolly is tracking over the northeastern Caribbean, where it could have impacts in some areas in the last days of August and into early September despite its official downgrade on Friday.

Dolly, a tropical rainstorm tracking over the Lesser Antilles, continues to battle widespread dry air and strong wind shear. As of early Sunday morning, the storm was moving west-northwest swiftly at 25 mph.

Dolly was downgraded from a tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center at midday Friday, but still poses some risks. As such, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to track Dolly as a tropical rainstorm.

Although Dolly could cause sporadic power outages from locally intense thunderstorms, its main impact will be drenching rainfall.

Dolly is rated less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean.

"That rain can be both beneficial and dangerous," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.

"On one hand, the region needs soaking rain because of drought conditions," Porter said.

Tropical waves and storms are important sources of rainfall because some of the smaller islands do not generate frequent pop-up thunderstorms on their own.

"On the other hand, any time you have torrential downpours, there is the risk of dangerous flash flooding," Porter said.

Steep terrain on the islands can worsen conditions and increase the risk of mudslides.

A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall on the northeast and north-central islands of the Caribbean, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 12 inches.

Dolly will likely continue to battle dry air and wind shear on its travels early this week while over the northern Caribbean. Interaction with islands, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and perhaps Cuba, will also disrupt the storm’s circulation and further reduce its wind intensity.

Dolly's strength, track in question this week

Dolly could totally dissipate by early week. However, AccuWeather meteorologists believe its fragmented showers and thunderstorms may persist near the north-central Caribbean islands.

Should Dolly survive, it could regenerate north of Cuba, where lower wind shear, more moisture and sufficiently warm water could foster strengthening.

Because of this, AccuWeather meteorologists caution there is some risk of impacts on the United States later this week from a rejuvenated Dolly or possibly a spinoff or separate entity.

It is recommended that fishing, pleasure boating, cruise and shipping interests closely monitor Dolly's progress this week and any potential development over the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic near the U.S. and the Bahamas.

AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.

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