Dolly or another tropical threat could track near US next week
Tropical Rainstorm Dolly could reorganize near the Bahamas or Florida next week. The tropical development risk may expand to the Gulf ahead of Labor Day weekend. Here’s what AccuWeather meteorologists are watching.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno explains why Dolly is expected to lose strength near the Caribbean islands this weekend and what could influence its track toward the United States late next week.
Dolly may have been downgraded to a tropical rainstorm, but it could restrengthen north of the Caribbean next week and eventually bring impacts closer to the United States around Labor Day weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring the possibility that a separate storm could develop nearby, either on its own or from Dolly’s leftover energy.
"Wind shear, dry air and friction from land areas in the northern Caribbean will continue to take a toll on Dolly as it moves westward as a tropical rainstorm this weekend into early next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "If Dolly survives these deterrents, the environment will become more conducive for development and strengthening north of Cuba, near the Bahamas and the Florida Straits, during the middle to latter part of next week. The zone over the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas is forecast to have low wind shear next week."
Steering winds will determine where Dolly tracks if it reorganizes and strengthens again.
"On one hand, a southward dip in the jet stream could scoop up Dolly and pull it away from the United States mainland and off into the western North Atlantic," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "However, a developing and somewhat more likely scenario is that Dolly reorganizes or a spinoff storm develops and is pushed westward by the large Bermuda high-pressure area over the western Atlantic."
From there, the storm could approach Florida as early as the middle of next week or enter the Gulf later in the week.
Other possibilities from the middle of next week through the Labor Day weekend include a separate storm developing along the trailing end of a front over the Gulf.
"Wind shear is low and forecast to become very low over the Gulf in early September," DaSilva said. "Should a tropical depression form or enter the Gulf, it could strengthen quickly. Even though Dolly has been downgraded by the National Hurricane Center, people should not automatically write off the storm or the potential for tropical development near the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts."
There is no need to change recreational or travel plans along the Gulf or southern Atlantic coasts at this time. However, residents and visitors should monitor the forecast through the Labor Day weekend in case the tropical threat increases.
Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin typically increases around the Labor Day weekend as the season approaches its climatological peak. In this case, some of the main zones to watch are the Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic.
Elsewhere in the Tropics, AccuWeather meteorologists expect large waves to pose some risk to swimmers along the California coast due to multiple storms at sea. On such system, Tropical Storm Lowell, is forecast to become a major hurricane for a time and could later approach Hawaii during the Labor Day weekend.
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