Atlantic hurricane season starts quiet, but Gulf bears watching
The Atlantic hurricane season is off to a quiet start, but a pair of areas near the United States could become the focus of tropical development during the coming days.
Bernie Rayno breaks down where tropical development could be possible as we approach the middle of June.
Despite the quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several areas for possible tropical development in the coming days, particularly because they are relatively close to land, including the United States.
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific recently produced its first tropical depression and Tropical Storm Amanda, and another one to two tropical storms are forecast to develop in the basin in the coming days. One or both of those could evolve into hurricanes.
Compared to the eastern Pacific, conditions for tropical development remain less favorable across the Atlantic. However, even subtle atmospheric changes could allow a tropical depression to form.
This image depicting the Gulf, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic was captured on Friday, June 5, 2026. While there were no organized tropical cyclones, there was a slight swirl to the clouds, showers and thunderstorms in the north-central Gulf, which will push onshore along the central Gulf Coast this weekend with the risk of localized flash flooding and gusty winds. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be the main deterrent against tropical development in the short term. These steady winds at various levels of the atmosphere tend to keep most low pressure areas poorly organized.
"One area we'll be watching through the end of the week is near the north-central Gulf Coast," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "This weak low pressure area will be embedded in a plume of moisture flowing northward from the Gulf and into part of the southeastern United States."
Its close proximity to the central Gulf Coast should limit the time available for significant organization or strengthening.
Regardless of whether tropical development occurs, the system's greatest impact is expected to be heavy downpours and gusty thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle from Friday night into Saturday. Localized urban flooding is possible, perhaps in New Orleans, and a few waterspouts could form and move onshore along area beaches. Where onshore breezes persist, tides will run 1-2 feet above normal and some low-lying roads could become flooded.
"We'll continue to monitor the Gulf, southwestern Atlantic and western Caribbean beyond this week because climatologically, these are the areas where tropical development is most likely this time of year," DaSilva said.
"In this case, several fronts will dip southward from North America and stall across portions of the region. Tropical systems can occasionally develop along stalled fronts and strengthen if they become detached from the frontal boundary," DaSilva explained.
As additional tropical development occurs in the eastern Pacific near Central America and southern Mexico, some of that moisture could filter into the Caribbean or Gulf and contribute to development there.
GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
•Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"If tropical development is going to occur, it's most likely before midmonth during June, as a broad area of enhanced thunderstorm activity is expected to shift away afterward," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alexander Duffus said.
There is continued indication of a low-pressure area forming in the Gulf or western Caribbean during the second week of June, which could be steered northward into the U.S.
Should the storm form, along with the risk of flash flooding, downpours could be directed into some drought-stricken areas of the eastern U.S. near and shortly after the middle of the month.
El Niño is one of the factors expected to suppress Atlantic tropical activity this season, reducing the likelihood of excessive numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes.
"Looking at temperature anomalies in recent weeks and at present, it appears that El Niño has begun, as we anticipated it would," AccuWeather's Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "We are just waiting on the official word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at this point."
However, a somewhat subdued season does not eliminate the risk of significant impacts. A single tropical storm or hurricane making landfall can cause major disruptions to lives, property and commerce.
AccuWeather is forecasting 11-16 named storms this season, including four to seven hurricanes. Of those systems, three to five are expected to affect the U.S. directly. Overall, the season is forecast to be near average to slightly below average.
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
