AccuWeather Atlantic tropical forecast: Is Emily on the horizon?
A new tropical system could develop before the end of the month as the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins to heat up.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking multiple tropical waves over the Atlantic basin and say a tropical disturbance will spread downpours and gusty thunderstorms northward along the Southeast coast into this weekend.
Despite a midsummer lull over the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a couple of tropical disturbances that could develop in the coming days. Either system could strengthen into the fifth named tropical system of the 2023 hurricane season.
A series of tropical disturbances, often referred to as tropical waves, continues to move westward off the coast of Africa. These disturbances originate over the Indian Ocean and move westward across the African continent as clusters of thunderstorms, gusty winds and Saharan dust. When they emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they can develop into an organized tropical system.
The tropical waves have been more vigorous than usual this season and helped spawn tropical storms Bret and Cindy in June. Since then, there have been some tropical waves that showed some promise for development for a time, such as the recent wave currently moving westward over the Caribbean. That wave began to ramp up as it approached Central America early Friday and unleashed locally heavy rainfall. The same system may develop soon after it moves into the Pacific basin.
The tropical waves have struggled with vast areas of dry air and disruptive breezes, called wind shear, over the past month. These conditions are quite common during July over the prime development zone of the Atlantic that extends from the African coast to the Caribbean.
Occasionally, a window of opportunity opens up for one of these waves to enter a zone of moist air and low wind shear. This will be the case with a tropical wave during the final days of July and perhaps into the first few days of August. The feature was located well east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean as of Saturday.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting a high chance for the wave to develop into a tropical depression or named tropical storm through the beginning of August as it takes a west then northwest path this weekend.
"This feature is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean late this weekend and then curve northward into the western or central Atlantic [this] week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. The Leeward Islands are the northern group of islands in the eastern Caribbean.
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"While this feature does not appear to be a significant threat to the Caribbean or the U.S., it will need to be monitored for potential impacts to Bermuda around the middle of [this] week," Douty said.
A large southward dip in the jet stream will develop in the eastern U.S. this week and influence where the system may head next.
"That jet stream dip will end a heat wave and usher in much cooler and less humid air to the Northeast and Midwest, as well as parts of the Southeast," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
It is the west-to-southwest flow of air around the base of the jet stream dip that should keep any tropical system over the central Atlantic away from the U.S. this week, Rayno explained.
Should the tropical wave develop a circulation with sustained winds reaching 39 mph or greater, a tropical storm would be born. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Emily. A tropical depression, which is one step down from a tropical storm, is not quite as organized and has winds of 35-38 mph.
Watching tropical downpours along southeast US coast
A tropical disturbance will continue to trigger clouds, drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms over part of the Southeast states through the end of the weekend. Radar and satellite data revealed a slight spin to showers and thunderstorms with a center west of Savannah, Georgia, Saturday morning.
The disturbance is traveling right along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. It is being steered by breezes flowing around the western edge of high pressure near Bermuda.
Should the area of low pressure remain over the water long enough, there is a very low but non-zero chance that this system could evolve into a tropical storm and acquire the Emily name before any system elsewhere over the Atlantic. Following Emily, the next name on the list for 2023 is Franklin.
AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring an area of low pressure spinning off the coast of South Carolina on Sunday, July 30, 2023. (AccuWeather)
Localized incidents of flash flooding are possible along with periodic stormy conditions at the beaches in the Southeast states. AccuWeather meteorologists urge boating and beach interests to keep a lookout for rapidly changing conditions.
As the system moves to the north and then the northeast, downpours will tend to diminish in coverage over the Florida Peninsula on Sunday.
The extent of cloud cover and cooling downpours may keep a lid on temperatures over Florida and southeastern Georgia, where highs well into the 90s have been prevalent much of the summer. Miami had its first pair of sub-90-degree highs Thursday and Friday since June 6-7.
5 named tropical systems and counting
An Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 through Nov. 30, brings a historical average of 14 named tropical systems.
To date, there have been five named systems, including Hurricane Don for the 2023 Atlantic season plus one unnamed subtropical storm that developed in January over the North Atlantic.
Don spent much of its life over the middle of the Atlantic earlier in July with no impacts to land.
AccuWeather's Tropical and Long-Range teams of meteorologists led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva and Long-Range Expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, anticipate near-average numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes this season, despite the jump start in January, June and July.
El Niño conditions are expected to kick in and tone down tropical development during the latter half of the hurricane season, Kottlowski explained in a recent interview. However, the period from the second half of August through much of September may be quite busy. Multiple simultaneous tropical systems may be spinning over the Atlantic during that period.
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