How much rain does California need to get out of the drought? A lot still
By
Zachary Rosenthal, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Feb 10, 2022 1:06 PM EDT
|
Updated Feb 10, 2022 1:08 PM EDT
Despite a blockbuster start to the wet season with atmospheric rivers and major winter storms, experts are worried about the snowpack and drought outlook.
If you flashback to October, it might seem hard to believe that California's Sierra Nevada would be experiencing a below-normal snowpack at this point of the winter. During October, the region was regularly pummeled with atmospheric rivers and major winter storms, with those storms dropping feet of snow in the mountains.
But as of early February, despite that strong start, the region has had its driest period of winter in recorded history. It has been more than 32 days and counting since the last snowfall at the U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, breaking the previous record of 31 set in 1990.
"After the record-setting December 2021 in many places along the West Coast, it is difficult to fathom how the moisture tap essentially shut down along the West Coast when the ridge of high pressure aloft set up and became reluctant to move anywhere," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "However, that is the case this winter, and now we are once again discussing the worsening drought conditions."
The lack of snowfall has put the area at just 73% of its annual yearly snowfall, according to Andrew Schwartz, the station manager and lead scientist at the U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, which currently has a bit over 5 feet of snow on the ground.
Schwartz said that only a few inches of snow fell in January, during the early part of the month.
A look at the snowy U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, where about 5 feet of snowfall was on the ground as of Feb. 9, 2022. More than 23 feet of snow has fallen this winter, about 8 feet below average. (AccuWeather / Bill Wadell)
"Without any snow to replenish it, we are going to see it start to shrink pretty quickly," Schwartz told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell.
The additional 8 feet of snow needed to bring the region up to average could be crucial in chipping away California's ongoing drought. About two-thirds of California is currently in a severe drought, sparking concerns about yet another intense wildfire season.
About two-thirds of California is experiencing severe drought conditions, with the entire state experiencing at least a moderate drought. (AccuWeather)
Still, there is time for more snow, and AccuWeather's long-range forecasters say that the pattern makes it look like the Sierra Nevada won't be shut out.
"It looks like there will be a storm that drops down from the Northwest Monday night into Tuesday with some snow," AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, adding that precipitation would fall in the form of rain at lower elevations. "It is a quick mover and not expected to bring a lot of snow -- but a good burst."
That chance of snow next week could bring 6 to 12 inches to some peaks, Buckingham said. After that storm, precipitation chances should increase in the last week of February, with a good period of snow and rain chances appearing possible until late March.
Up and down the Sierra Nevada, the snowpack is falling behind average. (AccuWeather)
"This trend of active weather can continue through the first half of March, with Northern and Central California expected to experience near- to above-average precipitation and near- to slightly below-average temperatures," Buckingham said, pointing out that a dome of high pressure may cause a return to dry and mild weather across California by late March.
Given the somewhat snowy forecast, there is still hope for precipitation in the Sierra; however, concerns have mounted.
California will need a lot of rain and snow to emerge from the severe drought conditions plaguing much of the state. A glance at February water levels in six of the Golden State's most critical reservoirs, which deliver fresh water to residents and farmers, shows that each is far from being at capacity. For example, Lake Oroville in Northern California was at 46% capacity as of Feb. 9, well below the average of 78% full at this time of year.
Farther to the south, the news is a little better, but not much. Castaic Lake in Southern California was at 59% capacity as of Feb. 9 -- the highest of the six reservoirs -- but still below its normal 74% capacity at this time of year.
Water levels at six key reservoirs throughout California as of Feb. 7, 2022.
"That one dry month of January basically wiped out whatever head start we had as we head towards the end of winter," Sean De Guzman, snow surveys manager for the California Department of Water Resources, said. De Guzman said the volatile shifts on a yearly, and even monthly, basis are making the management of water resources throughout the entire year especially challenging.
"It's not all alarm bells going off just yet," Schwartz said. "If we get to the same time next month and we haven't received any snowfall and it's not looking like we will, then it becomes much more of a pessimistic situation."
Reporting by Bill Wadell.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Climate
How much rain does California need to get out of the drought? A lot still
By Zachary Rosenthal, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Feb 10, 2022 1:06 PM EDT | Updated Feb 10, 2022 1:08 PM EDT
Despite a blockbuster start to the wet season with atmospheric rivers and major winter storms, experts are worried about the snowpack and drought outlook.
If you flashback to October, it might seem hard to believe that California's Sierra Nevada would be experiencing a below-normal snowpack at this point of the winter. During October, the region was regularly pummeled with atmospheric rivers and major winter storms, with those storms dropping feet of snow in the mountains.
But as of early February, despite that strong start, the region has had its driest period of winter in recorded history. It has been more than 32 days and counting since the last snowfall at the U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, breaking the previous record of 31 set in 1990.
"After the record-setting December 2021 in many places along the West Coast, it is difficult to fathom how the moisture tap essentially shut down along the West Coast when the ridge of high pressure aloft set up and became reluctant to move anywhere," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "However, that is the case this winter, and now we are once again discussing the worsening drought conditions."
The lack of snowfall has put the area at just 73% of its annual yearly snowfall, according to Andrew Schwartz, the station manager and lead scientist at the U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, which currently has a bit over 5 feet of snow on the ground.
Schwartz said that only a few inches of snow fell in January, during the early part of the month.
A look at the snowy U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, where about 5 feet of snowfall was on the ground as of Feb. 9, 2022. More than 23 feet of snow has fallen this winter, about 8 feet below average. (AccuWeather / Bill Wadell)
"Without any snow to replenish it, we are going to see it start to shrink pretty quickly," Schwartz told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell.
The additional 8 feet of snow needed to bring the region up to average could be crucial in chipping away California's ongoing drought. About two-thirds of California is currently in a severe drought, sparking concerns about yet another intense wildfire season.
About two-thirds of California is experiencing severe drought conditions, with the entire state experiencing at least a moderate drought. (AccuWeather)
Still, there is time for more snow, and AccuWeather's long-range forecasters say that the pattern makes it look like the Sierra Nevada won't be shut out.
"It looks like there will be a storm that drops down from the Northwest Monday night into Tuesday with some snow," AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, adding that precipitation would fall in the form of rain at lower elevations. "It is a quick mover and not expected to bring a lot of snow -- but a good burst."
That chance of snow next week could bring 6 to 12 inches to some peaks, Buckingham said. After that storm, precipitation chances should increase in the last week of February, with a good period of snow and rain chances appearing possible until late March.
Up and down the Sierra Nevada, the snowpack is falling behind average. (AccuWeather)
"This trend of active weather can continue through the first half of March, with Northern and Central California expected to experience near- to above-average precipitation and near- to slightly below-average temperatures," Buckingham said, pointing out that a dome of high pressure may cause a return to dry and mild weather across California by late March.
Given the somewhat snowy forecast, there is still hope for precipitation in the Sierra; however, concerns have mounted.
How much precipitation does California need to climb out of drought conditions?
California will need a lot of rain and snow to emerge from the severe drought conditions plaguing much of the state. A glance at February water levels in six of the Golden State's most critical reservoirs, which deliver fresh water to residents and farmers, shows that each is far from being at capacity. For example, Lake Oroville in Northern California was at 46% capacity as of Feb. 9, well below the average of 78% full at this time of year.
Farther to the south, the news is a little better, but not much. Castaic Lake in Southern California was at 59% capacity as of Feb. 9 -- the highest of the six reservoirs -- but still below its normal 74% capacity at this time of year.
Water levels at six key reservoirs throughout California as of Feb. 7, 2022.
"That one dry month of January basically wiped out whatever head start we had as we head towards the end of winter," Sean De Guzman, snow surveys manager for the California Department of Water Resources, said. De Guzman said the volatile shifts on a yearly, and even monthly, basis are making the management of water resources throughout the entire year especially challenging.
"It's not all alarm bells going off just yet," Schwartz said. "If we get to the same time next month and we haven't received any snowfall and it's not looking like we will, then it becomes much more of a pessimistic situation."
Reporting by Bill Wadell.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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