The big 'surprise' from the latest USDA crop estimates is tied to the weather
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Jun 12, 2020 2:03 PM EDT
Agriculture experts say hot and dry weather in parts of Kansas could impact hundreds of acres of winter wheat growing in the region.
The weather hasn’t made for ideal conditions to grow winter wheat this year in Kansas, nicknamed the “breadbasket of the country.” Kansas “grows more winter wheat than the next three biggest states combined,” said AccuWeather commodities analyst Jim Candor.
Winter wheat is the predominant crop grown in Kansas, with anywhere from 7 to 8 million acres sown every year and annual production ranging from between 280 and 460 million bushels. Roughly 95 percent of the wheat grown in Kansas is Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat and it’s used for flatbreads, tortillas, cereal, general-purpose flour and pasta, among other things.
This year, though, rough wheat growing conditions have included some spring freeze damage to the crop in central Kansas, then lingering wetness from the freeze, followed by severe dryness lately in the western third of the state. Much of western Kansas since May 15 is about 40 to 50 percent below normal precipitation during this period.
All of it has hurt the potential yield. “It has barely rained out there lately,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys.
That’s why the AccuWeather commodities analysts were so surprised by the data in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In this June 15, 2018, file photo, winter wheat is harvested in a field near McCracken, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
The WASDE report actually increased its estimate for HRW wheat yield to 52.1 bushels per acre, up from 51.7. AccuWeather forecasts a yield of 49.1 bushels per acre.
“That was the biggest surprise to me that I saw today in any of the WASDE numbers,” said Candor. “Our numbers are pretty dramatically different from them overall for the winter wheat areas. And the gap actually widened today. Honestly, I’m not sure what they’re seeing.”
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
For other key commodities, such as corn, soybeans and cotton, the latest WASDE numbers are unchanged from the May estimates.
AccuWeather meteorologists are calling for a period of dry weather to set in over the Midwest today and continue well into next week. This seven- to nine-day spell of drier-than-normal weather will begin to dry out the topsoil but allow late corn and soybean planting to be completed. Normal rainfall is expected to develop in the 10- to 15-day period, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
U.S. crop forecasts
Here are the latest AccuWeather predictions compared to the USDA’s WASDE numbers for June.
Corn:
USDA: 15.995 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 15.708 billion bushels
Soybeans:
USDA: 4.125 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 4.304 billion bushels
Wheat:
USDA: 1.877 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 1.837 billion bushels
Cotton:
USDA: 19.5 million (480 lb.) bales; AccuWeather: 20.66 million (480 lb.) bales
World crop forecasts
Here are the current AccuWeather predictions compared to the USDA forecast for world production:
Corn:
USDA: 1.188.48 billion metric tons; AccuWeather: 1.136.12 billion metric tons
Soybeans:
USDA: 362.85 million metric tons; AccuWeather: 357.55 million metric tons
Wheat:
USDA: 773.43 million metric tons; AccuWeather: 765.04 million metric tons
Cotton:
USDA: 118.74 million (480 lb.) bales; AccuWeather: 122.85 million (480 lb.) bales
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Business
The big 'surprise' from the latest USDA crop estimates is tied to the weather
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Jun 12, 2020 2:03 PM EDT
Agriculture experts say hot and dry weather in parts of Kansas could impact hundreds of acres of winter wheat growing in the region.
The weather hasn’t made for ideal conditions to grow winter wheat this year in Kansas, nicknamed the “breadbasket of the country.” Kansas “grows more winter wheat than the next three biggest states combined,” said AccuWeather commodities analyst Jim Candor.
Winter wheat is the predominant crop grown in Kansas, with anywhere from 7 to 8 million acres sown every year and annual production ranging from between 280 and 460 million bushels. Roughly 95 percent of the wheat grown in Kansas is Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat and it’s used for flatbreads, tortillas, cereal, general-purpose flour and pasta, among other things.
This year, though, rough wheat growing conditions have included some spring freeze damage to the crop in central Kansas, then lingering wetness from the freeze, followed by severe dryness lately in the western third of the state. Much of western Kansas since May 15 is about 40 to 50 percent below normal precipitation during this period.
All of it has hurt the potential yield. “It has barely rained out there lately,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys.
That’s why the AccuWeather commodities analysts were so surprised by the data in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In this June 15, 2018, file photo, winter wheat is harvested in a field near McCracken, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
The WASDE report actually increased its estimate for HRW wheat yield to 52.1 bushels per acre, up from 51.7. AccuWeather forecasts a yield of 49.1 bushels per acre.
“That was the biggest surprise to me that I saw today in any of the WASDE numbers,” said Candor. “Our numbers are pretty dramatically different from them overall for the winter wheat areas. And the gap actually widened today. Honestly, I’m not sure what they’re seeing.”
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
For other key commodities, such as corn, soybeans and cotton, the latest WASDE numbers are unchanged from the May estimates.
AccuWeather meteorologists are calling for a period of dry weather to set in over the Midwest today and continue well into next week. This seven- to nine-day spell of drier-than-normal weather will begin to dry out the topsoil but allow late corn and soybean planting to be completed. Normal rainfall is expected to develop in the 10- to 15-day period, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
U.S. crop forecasts
Here are the latest AccuWeather predictions compared to the USDA’s WASDE numbers for June.
Corn:
USDA: 15.995 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 15.708 billion bushels
Soybeans:
USDA: 4.125 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 4.304 billion bushels
Wheat:
USDA: 1.877 billion bushels; AccuWeather: 1.837 billion bushels
Cotton:
USDA: 19.5 million (480 lb.) bales; AccuWeather: 20.66 million (480 lb.) bales
World crop forecasts
Here are the current AccuWeather predictions compared to the USDA forecast for world production:
Corn:
USDA: 1.188.48 billion metric tons; AccuWeather: 1.136.12 billion metric tons
Soybeans:
USDA: 362.85 million metric tons; AccuWeather: 357.55 million metric tons
Wheat:
USDA: 773.43 million metric tons; AccuWeather: 765.04 million metric tons
Cotton:
USDA: 118.74 million (480 lb.) bales; AccuWeather: 122.85 million (480 lb.) bales
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo