How the weather will affect the 2019 holiday shopping season
AccuWeather's updated holiday retail sales forecast still reflects a healthy growth year over year.
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Nov 22, 2019 4:04 PM EST
AccuWeather predicts an above-average increase in retail sales for the 2019 holiday season. (File photo: Gunnar Rathbun/AP Images for Walmart)
AP Photo
While retail sales in the United States increased by 0.3% in October, there were fewer winter apparel sales, as AccuWeather accurately predicted, due to above-normal temperatures in October that blanketed the Eastern third of the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (Overall in the U.S., 2019 was the coolest October since 2009 and ranked in the lowest third of the 125-year record, according to NOAA.) The spike in sales was mainly driven by motor vehicle purchases and higher gasoline prices, according to the Commerce Department.
According to AccuWeather, November so far has experienced colder than normal temperatures and some snowstorms, particularly in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The November cold has hurt traffic in brick-and-mortar stores -- though it has increased sales of coats and outerwear, AccuWeather believes -- and has undoubtedly encouraged a continued shift to sales online, according to AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers.
Because of the disruptive weather and colder temperatures that have already occurred this month and the continuing cold in November, AccuWeather now is lowering its holiday retail sales estimate from a 3.8 percent increase to a 3.6 percent increase over last year, or a total of $726.4 billion in sales this holiday season. The average annual growth in holiday retail sales over the past four years has been 3.4 percent.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimated in October that U.S. shoppers in stores and online would increase their spending compared to 2018 by 3.8 to 4.2 percent, which is $727.9 billion to $730.7 billion, during the 2019 holiday season from November through December. AccuWeather had earlier predicted a 3.8 percent increase, which was at the very bottom of the NRF range.
“Our estimate of 3.6 percent still reflects a healthy growth – it is above the average of the past four years,” said Myers. “There is some continued uncertainty over the economy, although consumer confidence will be somewhat boosted by the strength in the stock market.”
AccuWeather incorporates AccuWeather economic indicators and historical shopping trend data in addition to its accurate weather forecasts, which, in a three-year study of 95 million forecasts in 1,140 locations globally, have proven to be more accurate than other sources. As a result, its annual holiday retail forecast has been more reliable in its 2017 and 2018 holiday forecast predictions than other sources.
Last year, AccuWeather estimated a 4.1 percent increase, which proved more on target than the NRF prediction of 4.3 to 4.8 percent increase. And two years ago, AccuWeather was also more accurate when it projected a 4.2 percent increase in 2017 holiday retail sales over 2016 holiday spending, compared to the NRF prediction of 3.6 to 4 percent.
Over the next two weeks, several storms will have different impacts across the country. This weekend, a storm will bring rain to the mid-Atlantic and New England coast, with interior snow and ice. The next system early next week will bring a period of snow and rain to the Midwest, with the heaviest snow north of Chicago. A big storm system will bring rain to the L.A. Basin midweek next week with mountain snow and below normal temperatures (8 to 12 degrees below normal) through the late week west of the Continental Divide.
With storms moving from the Rockies to the Midwest and Great Lakes, temperatures will warm across the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley and Gulf coast next week. Some areas will run 10 to 18 degrees above normal. Southern parts of the East will warm late next week; the Northeast will struggle.
The weather pattern will go into a change between Dec. 2 and Dec. 10. Wind flow will turn from the Northwest, sending cold air from western Canada into the northern Plains and East. Cold air in waves will move south, impacting the northern Plains and Midwest to the East. Temperature departures will head below normal during this period.
Temperatures will rebound mid-December up through Christmas from the Mississippi Valley to the East. Fast-moving storms will have less impact for the East, possibly stronger across the West during this time period.
Temperatures overall from mid-November through Christmas will wind up near to below normal from the Midwest/Ohio Valley, Great Lakes to the Northeast, mid-Atlantic near normal and slightly above normal for the Southeast. The coldest area compared to normal will be the upper Great Lakes and Northeast.
Compared to last year (mid-November through Christmas), temperatures will average 2-3 degrees colder in the interior Northeast with more snow; the I-95 corridor will be about a degree colder and there will be less snow than last year (there was a snowstorm last year in mid-November), with the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast similar. Last year the Midwest was cold in November (3-7 degrees below normal) and temperatures were above normal in December (4-8 degrees above). This November will wind up close to last year on cold temperatures and just as stormy as well, but December will wind up 3-5 degrees colder at least, with potential for more cold just after Christmas.
Seasonably cold weather can actually help retail sales, according to AccuWeather analysts. Extremely low temperatures can depress sales, but that relationship continues to weaken as shoppers become more and more comfortable making their holiday purchases online. Since temperatures are not likely to be extreme either way, AccuWeather does not expect this to be a factor in 2019.
Editor's note: Data from NOAA was added to the first paragraph to clarify information regarding October temperatures in the U.S.
Download the free AccuWeather app to track the temperature for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Business
How the weather will affect the 2019 holiday shopping season
AccuWeather's updated holiday retail sales forecast still reflects a healthy growth year over year.
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Nov 22, 2019 4:04 PM EST
AccuWeather predicts an above-average increase in retail sales for the 2019 holiday season. (File photo: Gunnar Rathbun/AP Images for Walmart)
While retail sales in the United States increased by 0.3% in October, there were fewer winter apparel sales, as AccuWeather accurately predicted, due to above-normal temperatures in October that blanketed the Eastern third of the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (Overall in the U.S., 2019 was the coolest October since 2009 and ranked in the lowest third of the 125-year record, according to NOAA.) The spike in sales was mainly driven by motor vehicle purchases and higher gasoline prices, according to the Commerce Department.
According to AccuWeather, November so far has experienced colder than normal temperatures and some snowstorms, particularly in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The November cold has hurt traffic in brick-and-mortar stores -- though it has increased sales of coats and outerwear, AccuWeather believes -- and has undoubtedly encouraged a continued shift to sales online, according to AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers.
Because of the disruptive weather and colder temperatures that have already occurred this month and the continuing cold in November, AccuWeather now is lowering its holiday retail sales estimate from a 3.8 percent increase to a 3.6 percent increase over last year, or a total of $726.4 billion in sales this holiday season. The average annual growth in holiday retail sales over the past four years has been 3.4 percent.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimated in October that U.S. shoppers in stores and online would increase their spending compared to 2018 by 3.8 to 4.2 percent, which is $727.9 billion to $730.7 billion, during the 2019 holiday season from November through December. AccuWeather had earlier predicted a 3.8 percent increase, which was at the very bottom of the NRF range.
“Our estimate of 3.6 percent still reflects a healthy growth – it is above the average of the past four years,” said Myers. “There is some continued uncertainty over the economy, although consumer confidence will be somewhat boosted by the strength in the stock market.”
AccuWeather incorporates AccuWeather economic indicators and historical shopping trend data in addition to its accurate weather forecasts, which, in a three-year study of 95 million forecasts in 1,140 locations globally, have proven to be more accurate than other sources. As a result, its annual holiday retail forecast has been more reliable in its 2017 and 2018 holiday forecast predictions than other sources.
Last year, AccuWeather estimated a 4.1 percent increase, which proved more on target than the NRF prediction of 4.3 to 4.8 percent increase. And two years ago, AccuWeather was also more accurate when it projected a 4.2 percent increase in 2017 holiday retail sales over 2016 holiday spending, compared to the NRF prediction of 3.6 to 4 percent.
Over the next two weeks, several storms will have different impacts across the country. This weekend, a storm will bring rain to the mid-Atlantic and New England coast, with interior snow and ice. The next system early next week will bring a period of snow and rain to the Midwest, with the heaviest snow north of Chicago. A big storm system will bring rain to the L.A. Basin midweek next week with mountain snow and below normal temperatures (8 to 12 degrees below normal) through the late week west of the Continental Divide.
With storms moving from the Rockies to the Midwest and Great Lakes, temperatures will warm across the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley and Gulf coast next week. Some areas will run 10 to 18 degrees above normal. Southern parts of the East will warm late next week; the Northeast will struggle.
The weather pattern will go into a change between Dec. 2 and Dec. 10. Wind flow will turn from the Northwest, sending cold air from western Canada into the northern Plains and East. Cold air in waves will move south, impacting the northern Plains and Midwest to the East. Temperature departures will head below normal during this period.
Temperatures will rebound mid-December up through Christmas from the Mississippi Valley to the East. Fast-moving storms will have less impact for the East, possibly stronger across the West during this time period.
Temperatures overall from mid-November through Christmas will wind up near to below normal from the Midwest/Ohio Valley, Great Lakes to the Northeast, mid-Atlantic near normal and slightly above normal for the Southeast. The coldest area compared to normal will be the upper Great Lakes and Northeast.
Compared to last year (mid-November through Christmas), temperatures will average 2-3 degrees colder in the interior Northeast with more snow; the I-95 corridor will be about a degree colder and there will be less snow than last year (there was a snowstorm last year in mid-November), with the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast similar. Last year the Midwest was cold in November (3-7 degrees below normal) and temperatures were above normal in December (4-8 degrees above). This November will wind up close to last year on cold temperatures and just as stormy as well, but December will wind up 3-5 degrees colder at least, with potential for more cold just after Christmas.
Seasonably cold weather can actually help retail sales, according to AccuWeather analysts. Extremely low temperatures can depress sales, but that relationship continues to weaken as shoppers become more and more comfortable making their holiday purchases online. Since temperatures are not likely to be extreme either way, AccuWeather does not expect this to be a factor in 2019.
Editor's note: Data from NOAA was added to the first paragraph to clarify information regarding October temperatures in the U.S.
Download the free AccuWeather app to track the temperature for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo