Tropical system may brew near southeastern US coast Memorial Day weekend
Conditions will become favorable for tropical development over the Atlantic Ocean, in the vicinity of the southeastern United States, toward the end of May and into early June.
People from Florida to Georgia, the Carolinas and the Bahamas may want to keep an eye on the tropics in the coming days.
"While tropical development a week in advance is not a certainty, we will be closely monitoring the area near the Bahamas beginning during Memorial Day weekend," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"Waters in the area are sufficiently warm enough and winds aloft are light enough to initiate and sustain a tropical system," Kottlowski said.
Surf temperatures in the region are about 80 F (26-27 C). While there are moderate winds aloft over the region at present, these winds may diminish or the system may move into an area where winds aloft are light.
Typically, very early season tropical systems begin as a non-tropical storm or subtropical (hybrid) storm. That is a possibility in this case.
"Movement and development of the system, should it form, will be slow at first," Kottlowski said. "However, a general drift toward the north and west is likely with any storm that forms over the region."
Steering winds could direct the system close to the U.S. coast during next week.
A second system could spin up in the same general area next week.
Even in absence of a full-blown tropical storm or hurricane, downpours and thunderstorms will increase over the region from the Bahamas westward to the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. later this weekend into next week. In addition, surf conditions would get increasingly rough from the eastern Florida coast to North Carolina.
Beach, boating and cruise interests in the region should monitor the situation.
Should the area of disturbed weather develop into a tropical system, it would be named Bonnie, since Alex was the first official tropical storm and hurricane of 2016. Alex formed over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on Jan. 13, became a hurricane on Jan. 14 and dissipated on Jan. 15. Alex was the first January hurricane to occur in the Atlantic since 1955.
AccuWeather is projecting an above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this season.
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