White Christmas Model Maps

UPDATE: The morning (12Z) run of the GFS starts out with a signficant snowstorm in Texas on Dec. 24 then moves the storm northeast into New England, but has rain in the most populous areas of the Northeast on Christmas morning. It also shows snowflakes as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. I have also updated the Woldwide White Christmas Forecast maps including the U.S. and Canada.

ORIGINAL POST: The GFS Forecast Model [JessePedia] continues to predict a White Christmas over much of the Northeast, moving a strong snowstorm through the area on Christmas Day. It has delayed the storm, which was originally coming on Christmas Eve. This is a bad sign because, in my opinion, once they slow them down, they continue to do so; come Christmas Day, this storm may still be approaching the Northeast.

GFS: SNOW COVER CHRISTMAS NIGHT

I'll give the disclaimer that the following maps are from the Weird Run [JessePedia] (06Z), but I wanted to give you an update this morning. The "real" run last night (00Z) predicted a much warmer situation, keeping much of the precip as rain on Christmas morning.

Below are the precipitation predictions for Christmas Night (and a day later, as cold air filters in, snow covers all of the Northeast).

The next model to throw its hat in the ring is the high-resolution DGEX, preferring a similar situation to the GFS (of course, the model is initialized off of GFS data, so this is not unexpected).

Notice in both models, snow is predicted all the way down into the Deep South.

What do our meteorologists think? Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is off the hype train, saying it's too early and the models are fluctuating too much to start talking about snow on Christmas for anybody. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) says Texas is a sure bet but after that, he's not talking.

Officially, we don't have a map up yet regarding the potential White Christmas this year, but we have taken a stab at Holiday Travel weather for this weekend, which includes the storm in question starting up in the Plains (all rain, before the cold air takes over).