Northeast Snow Updates - Models, Maps

UPDATE (3 PM): A blog reader in southern Virginia is reporting sleet.

UDPATE (2 PM): We have added a snow map (and also a wind map) for the Tuesday New England event.

ORIGINAL POST:

People aren't talking much about the coastal storm which will bring heavy snow to parts of New England. In fact, we don't even have a map for it yet. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) said in his blog:

This is what the 4-KM WRF Forecast Model [JessePedia] has to say about total snowfall:

Now, I would caution you that, however hi-res this map is, it is still a model guess, and this model is newer, so it has not been tested or adjusted well. This model had a tendency last Spring to ignore ground temperatures, so a lot of the higher amounts, especially south of the Mason-Dixon line, may not come true. Also note that this map ends Tuesday night, so the New England storm is not represented well east of New York State.

Remember, Henry (PREMIUM | PRO) drew a map of this storm's expected snowfall yesterday, and probably will again today.

We have created a new map showing the lake-effect snow spreading farther south and east, as I expected.

So far, of the predicted possibility of hail, thundersnow, and waterspouts along with the lake-effect rain and snow showers, only hail has come true. From the NWS last night:

Benton Heights, MI: 0.5" Hail: "HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH IN SIZE COVERING 60 PERCENT OF THE GROUND"Magician Lake, MI: 0.25" Hail: "HAIL COVERING THE GROUND"

Thunder and lightning was reported with the hail at multiple locations including Milwaukee and Buffalo... but at that time it was not cold enough to snow.

So far this morning the only snow reports over 1 inch that have come in are:

Watersmeet & Thousand Island Lake, MI: 2.0" SnowSilver Bay, MN: 1.5" Snow