Dean To Take Yucatan Challenge

UPDATE 8/21/07: Dean fought the Yucatan, and nearly lost. He was taken down from a record Cat 5 storm to a mere Cat 1 before emerging into the Bay of Campeche.

ORIGINAL POST:

What amount of steam will Dean lose when he takes the "Yucatan Challenge"? Mountains are the worst challenge to tropical storms moving over islands and peninsulas, but according to this site, "the highest elevation there is approximately 75 meters (246 feet)." Something like Cuba, with mountains to 6,500 feet, can rip apart a storm even more, especially if the storm hits it longways. Here's what the (flat) Yucatan looks like in Google Earth from the direction Dean will approach:

YUCATAN FROM DEAN'S PERSPECTIVE: SMOOTH SAILING?

But there is the land factor -- hurricanes get their energy from warm water, so travelling over 240 or so miles of land (about the width of South Carolina) can have a serious damaging effect. The most recent example that I could find of a large hurricane travelling over the Yucatan was Emily in 2005, which was a Category 4 when she came onshore and a 2 when she left, falling to a 1 in the Gulf. However, she still managed to strengthen into a Cat 3 before hitting Mexico, and could have strengthened further if she had curved to the northeast.

HURRICANE EMILY 2005 - AccuWeather Google Hurricane Tracker (PREMIUM | PRO)

Of course, this is all assuming that upper-level conditions are favorable for the storm to strengthen, so we'll have to wait and see. Sea-surface temperatures should enhance strengthening, as they are above normal this year in the expected path of Dean.